2025-06-13-花旗集团-美国工业_2025年4月AHRI数据_住宅热水器同比下降；商用热水器略有上升；HVAC出货量喜忧参半_11页_419kb

Citi Research Summary: April 25 AHRI Data

Residential Water Heaters: Shipments declined 3.4% YoY, off a tougher year-over-year comparison, primarily due to weaker housing starts and permits data, suggesting continued macroeconomic headwinds. Recent indicators point to lower residential activity, with unit volume trends potentially moderating.

Commercial Water Heaters: Shipments modestly increased 0.3% YoY, benefiting slightly easier comps, but non-residential demand uncertainty remains a factor, possibly keeping shipments pressured. Expectations for a relatively flat market in 2025 hinge on easing inventories and ongoing macro volatility.

HVAC Shipments: Mixed performance—central air conditioners and heat pumps saw a 6.4% YoY increase, but commercial HVAC shipments fell 26.1% YoY due to the transition to R-454B refrigerant and higher inventories. Residential HVAC shipments rose 7.6% YoY, but elevated demand from late 2024's pre-buy activity is expected to create challenging year-over-year comparisons in 2025, potentially easing later in the year.