国际能源署-世界能源模式（英）-2021.10-112页_5mb

报告摘要

World Energy Model Documentation Summary

1. Core Content

The World Energy Model (WEM) is a comprehensive, large-scale simulation model developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) since 1993 to provide medium- to long-term energy projections. It serves as the principal tool for generating detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region analyses for the World Energy Outlook (WEO) scenarios. The model covers three main areas:

Energy supply: oil, natural gas, coal, and bioenergy
Energy transformation: power generation, heat, refining, and other technologies like hydrogen and ammonia
Energy demand: industry, transport, buildings, and electricity demand

The WEM is continuously updated and reviewed, incorporating expert input from the IEA and the broader modeling community. It also integrates data from external sources and other institutions such as the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

2. Main Scenarios

The WEO-2021 includes four key scenarios, each with distinct objectives and assumptions:

Scenario	Definition	Objective
Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE)	A scenario that outlines a narrow but achievable pathway for the global energy sector to reach net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050.	To show what is needed across the main sectors to achieve net zero emissions and meet other sustainable development goals.
Announced Pledges (APS)	Assumes all climate commitments, including NDCs and net zero targets, will be met fully and on time.	To show how close current pledges are to achieving the 1.5°C global warming target.
Stated Policies (STEPS)	Reflects current policies and announced measures without assuming all goals will be met.	To provide a conservative benchmark for the energy system without major policy intervention.
Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS)	An integrated scenario aiming to achieve universal energy access, reduce air pollution, and combat climate change.	To demonstrate a plausible path to meet the SDGs, including climate, energy access, and air quality targets.

The NZE and SDS scenarios are particularly aligned with the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, focusing on three key SDGs: universal access to modern energy services (SDG 7), reducing air pollution impacts (SDG 3.9), and combating climate change (SDG 13).

3. Key Assumptions and Technical Aspects

3.1 Population and Macroeconomic Assumptions

Population data is used to estimate energy demand and supply.
Macroeconomic growth is considered as a key driver of energy consumption and investment.

3.2 Price Assumptions

Energy prices are modelled based on historical trends and market dynamics.
The model incorporates both fuel prices and electricity prices, which are dynamically linked to final energy demand and transformation.

3.3 Investment and Financing

Investment in the energy sector is analyzed based on sources (public and private), capital structure (debt and equity), and origin of funds (domestic and international).
Investment projections include end-use sectors (buildings, industry, transport) and hydrogen-based fuel supply.

3.4 Emissions and Environmental Impact

CO₂ emissions are calculated based on energy consumption and industrial production.
Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases and air pollution are estimated using integrated models like GAINS and GLOBIOM.
Methane emissions from oil and gas are assessed using bottom-up estimates and direct measurements.

4. Energy Demand Analysis

Industry: Includes updated definitions with blast furnaces and chemical feedstock.
Transport: Incorporates scrappage functions to model early retirement of car fleets, and expands the list of transport fuels to include synthetic fuels.
Buildings: Enhances energy efficiency models for new and existing buildings, and introduces behavioural analysis with digitalization effects and temperature moderation impacts.
Electricity demand: Models hourly demand and demand-side response, including utility-scale battery storage and mini- and off-grid systems.

5. Energy Supply and Transformation

The fossil-fuel supply module includes improved categorization of natural gas production by water depth.
Biomass feedstock is now included in the model to provide a complete picture of bioenergy inputs.
Hydrogen and ammonia are added as energy transformation technologies, with co-firing options.
Coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas-to-liquids (GTL) processes are included in the model, reflecting broader energy transformation pathways.

6. Key Updates in WEO-2021

Regional scope: Colombia is now grouped with advanced economies in Central and South America, and Guyana is modelled individually in the oil and gas supply module.
Behavioural analysis: Updated to include energy-saving practices, commercial building impacts, and digitalization effects.
CO₂ emissions: Improved methane tracking and integration with GAINS and GLOBIOM models.
Investment and financing: Detailed analysis of capital sources and alignment with long-term net-zero investment goals.
Energy access: New analysis on affordability in Africa and Developing Asia, considering poverty lines and service bundles.
Employment: Includes job creation, maintenance, and loss based on investment and production changes.

7. Conclusion

The WEM is a critical tool for analyzing global and regional energy trends, emissions, investment, and employment. It provides a robust framework for understanding the interplay between energy policies, technological changes, and sustainable development goals. The model's structure and assumptions are continuously refined to ensure accuracy and relevance, and its integration with external models enhances its ability to evaluate complex interactions in the energy system.

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