2022-12-15-益普索Ipsos-通货膨胀_十分之七的人预计2023年物价将继续上涨（英）_64页_902kb

Global Inflation Monitor November 2022 Summary

1. Inflation Expectations for 2023

• Global Sentiment Unchanged: 69% of adults in 36 countries expect prices to rise significantly/a little in 2023, slightly higher than the previous month's 63%.
• Concern About Inflation: When asked what would contribute most to inflation next year, 69% globally blame the state of the global economy, followed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine (70%) and interest rates (68%).

2. Changes in Expenditure Expectations

• Energy Prices: Fuel prices are expected to rise globally, with significant increases in countries like the UAE (87%), Brazil (81%), and Hong Kong (79%).
• Food Prices: Food shopping expenses are expected to increase by 50-70% across all countries surveyed.
• Other Household Spending: Subscriptions, like Netflix, are expected to rise by 44-75%.
• Housing: Rent and mortgage costs are expected to rise in most countries, with jumps of 43% or more in Argentina, Mexico, and others.
• Outgoing Socializing: Nearly half (39%) expect a decrease in this spending category.

3. Causes of Rising Living Costs

• Top Factor: The global economy (74%) and the Ukraine invasion (68%) are seen as primary drivers.
• Increasing Relief: Government policy effectiveness (62%), corporate greed (59%), post-COVID recovery (60%), and immigration (49%) contribute less to inflation rise.

4. Payraise Expectations

• Global Decline in Payrise Hopefulness: Inflation expectations are eroding payrise hopes; globally only 12% anticipate a rise equal to or above inflation.
• Country Variations: In Mexico, only 31% expect a rise in pay, while Poland sees 16% – a decline.

5. Job Search Intentions

• Strong Labor Market Sensitivity: 43% of employed people globally said they would consider seeking new job opportunities this year.

Insights and Notes

• Energy Exodus: Energy and food are the most volatile categories expected to worsen living costs.
• National Disparities: Countries differ significantly in responses; Turkey sees a surge in job-search intentions, while energy expectations remain high across most places.
• Geopolitics Undeniably Impacting: The global war in Ukraine is accentuating inflation fears considerably.

This comprehensive report outlines a gloomy outlook for global living costs, highlighting energy and geopolitical factors as key drivers of impending economic hardship. Worries about where to find income follow suit.