20250801-华安证券-7月中国PMI数据点评_从基本面看空债市者_可以稍息_10页_487kb

核心观点

Reports from the fundamentals. those who bear short the bond market can pause slightly
PMI data for July 2025 indicates a cooling in economic recovery, with demand and production weak. Bond yields may remain low, supporting bond market performance.

PMI数据亮点

• Manufacturing PMI at 49.3% (down 0.4pp from June), below market expectations.
• Non-manufacturing PMI at 50.1% (reversion from 50.5%), showing slight cooling.
• Key issues: Declining orders, production slowdown, high costs, and inventory adjustments due to weak demand.

经济分析

• Demand contraction in both domestic and foreign orders, exacerbated by export declines.
• Supply-side pressures: Upward raw material price shocks not fully passed to consumers, squeezing profits.
• Inventory cycle shifting to active de-stocking, indicative of economic stress and potential inefficiency elimination.

后市展望

• Economic recovery unclear, with policy interventions needed to boost demand.
• Bond market likely benefits from ongoing weakness, with yields under pressure due to subdued growth.
• Factors to monitor: Global risks, policy effectiveness, and inflation trajectory.

风险提示

• External uncertainties from global trade and economic shifts.
• Policy missteps that could amplify economic imbalances or delay recovery.

Note: This summary is based on the report dated 2025-08-01.