2023-02-26-Allianz_Research-2022年全球破产报告_21页_1mb

Global Insolvency Report Summary

Core Content

The Allianz Research Global Insolvency Report provides an analysis of the current state of business insolvencies across the globe, highlighting the deterioration of risk balance for companies due to the war in Ukraine and new lockdowns in China. It also discusses the uneven return of state support and the rebound in insolvencies expected in 2022 and 2023.

Main Points

• Global Risks Deteriorated in 2022
  The war in Ukraine and lockdowns in China have intensified global supply chain disruptions, transportation bottlenecks, and input cost pressures, particularly in energy and commodities. These shocks, combined with the global inflation surge and monetary tightening, have increased the financial strain on companies.

• Resilience Factors in the Short Term
  Despite these risks, three signs of resilience are expected to prevent a massive surge in insolvencies:

  1. Cash Buffers: Listed firms have higher cash holdings compared to 2019, with a 30% increase in non-financial corporates (NFCs) globally.
  2. Fewer Fragile Firms: The number of companies at risk of insolvency has decreased, especially in Italy and France.
  3. Price Pass-Through: Companies have been more successful than expected in passing on cost increases to prices, as evidenced by the Q1 2022 earning season.

• State Support Returns
  Governments in France, Germany, and Italy have introduced or extended support measures, including partial unemployment programs and state-guaranteed loans, in response to ongoing economic shocks. These measures are expected to delay the normalization of insolvencies, particularly in Europe.

• Regional and Country-Level Trends

  • Global Rebound: After two years of declines, global insolvencies are expected to rebound by +10% in 2022 and +14% in 2023, approaching pre-pandemic levels.
  • Country-Specific Trends:
    • France and Germany will see insolvencies artificially low due to state support.
    • The UK is expected to experience a sharp rebound in 2022 (+37% y/y).
    • One in three countries will return to pre-pandemic insolvency levels in 2022, and one in two in 2023.
    • Asia will maintain insolvencies in check, while Africa and Central and Eastern Europe are expected to reach record highs.
    • The US benefits from accumulated buffers and support programs like the Pay-check Protection Program.

Key Information

Insolvency Trends

• Global Insolvency Index: Recorded its second consecutive annual decline in 2021 (-12%), reaching a record low.
• Q1 2022 Rebound: The normalization of insolvencies is visible, with a +26% y/y increase in Western Europe.
• Regional Performance:
  • Asia: China, Japan, and South Korea still have lower insolvencies, but countries like Australia, India, and Singapore are seeing significant increases.
  • Europe: France and Germany show resilience due to state support, while the UK, Spain, and Switzerland experience sharp rebounds.
  • Emerging Markets: SMEs in these regions are most vulnerable to insolvency.

Working Capital Requirements (WCR)

• Global Increase: WCR increased in 2021, particularly in Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America.
• Sector-Specific Trends:
  • Consumer Discretionary and Industrials show the highest cash-hoarding.
  • Consumer Staples and Communications are underperforming in certain countries.

Debt-to-GDP Ratios

• Deterioration: The debt-to-GDP ratio for non-financial corporations (NFCs) increased in most regions, with the Eurozone experiencing the highest rise (+5.2pp).
• Country-Specific Deterioration:
  • France: +8.8pp
  • Germany: +4.2pp
  • Italy: +0.4pp
  • Japan: +13.5pp

Impact of Interest Rates

• An increase of 100 basis points in key interest rates could reduce NFC margins by:
  • France: -2.3pp
  • Germany: -1pp
  • UK: -1.5pp
  • US: -1.4pp

Conclusion

The report underscores that while companies have shown resilience in the short term, the ongoing global shocks are likely to lead to a rebound in insolvencies in 2022 and 2023. The return of state support in some countries, especially in Europe, will help delay the normalization of insolvencies. However, the asymmetric impact on different regions and sectors is expected to persist, with emerging markets and SMEs being the most vulnerable. The financial health of large firms appears stronger than that of SMEs, and the inequality in support measures may further exacerbate the situation.