2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Haiti_Sixth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Extension_of_the_Arrangement_and_Rephasing_of_Disbursements_54页_951kb

Haiti: Sixth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the sixth review under Haiti's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, which was approved in 2010 and was set to expire in 2013. The request for extension and rephasing of disbursements was made to maintain the gains achieved and to continue key reforms, particularly in the fiscal area. The staff report, prepared by the IMF, includes a detailed analysis of recent economic developments, program performance, and policy discussions with the Haitian authorities.

Main Points and Key Information

Program Implementation and Status

• The ECF arrangement, worth SDR 40.95 million (50% of quota), was approved in July 2010 and was set to expire on August 30, 2013.
• Program implementation has been broadly satisfactory.
• The authorities met all end-March 2013 performance criteria, but missed two indicative targets: net credit to the government and poverty-related spending.
• Five structural benchmarks remain unimplemented as of end-March 2013, mainly due to weak capacity and delays in mobilizing technical assistance.

Fiscal Performance and Reforms

• Revenue collection in the first half of FY2013 was below projections, with a shortfall of G4.2 billion (1.2% of GDP).
• The fiscal deficit for FY2013 was 5.5% of GDP, slightly above the initial target of 5.3%.
• The 2014 budget targets an overall deficit of 6.9% of GDP, with a focus on increasing domestic revenue and rationalizing current expenditure.
• Domestic revenue is projected to increase by G6.6 billion (0.7% of GDP), mainly from petroleum products and improved revenue administration.
• Budget support is expected to decline to $45 million (0.5% of GDP) from $60 million (0.7% of GDP) in FY2013.
• The wage bill is expected to rise by 13%, from G21 billion to G23.7 billion, due to reclassification of subsidies and transfers.

Structural Reforms

• The reclassification of expenditure items for the 2014 budget is aimed at enhancing transparency and accountability.
• Domestic oil price mechanism is under review to address revenue volatility and costly subsidies.
• The authorities are preparing a VAT law with technical assistance from FAD and LEG, which will be part of the new general tax code.

Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

• The growth projection for FY2013 was revised downward to 3.4% from 6.5% in the Fifth Review.
• Inflation was 7.7% (y/y) at end-March 2013, but declined to 7.3% in May 2013.
• The exchange rate depreciated by 3.5% against the U.S. dollar between October 2012 and June 2013.
• Gross international reserves remained at about 6 months of imports at end-May 2013.
• Overall fiscal balance is projected to be -6.9% of GDP in FY2014, with external financing at 4.5% of GDP and domestic financing at 2.4% of GDP.

Policy Discussions

• The focus was on macroeconomic policy for the remainder of FY2013 and structural reforms for FY2014 to ensure medium-term external sustainability.
• Priority areas included:
  • Increasing domestic revenue and rationalizing current expenditure to generate fiscal space for infrastructure and poverty-related spending.
  • Improving public financial management (PFM) and economic governance to address impediments to public investment.
  • Strengthening the monetary policy transmission mechanism by reducing excess liquidity and deepening financial intermediation.

External Vulnerabilities

• Haiti remains heavily exposed to global economic slowdown, primarily through remittances, trade, and official transfers.
• Natural disaster vulnerability is a persistent concern.
• The narrow export base and high debt levels continue to pose risks to external sustainability.

Banking Sector

• The banking sector remains sound and profitable, with an average capital adequacy ratio of 16%.
• Total credit to the private sector grew by 24.1% at end-May 2013.
• Non-performing loans remain low, indicating concentration in well-established businesses.
• The central bank (BRH) increased FX market intervention and reserve requirement ratios to reduce excess liquidity.

Key Challenges

• Political instability and tense relations between the government and Parliament could delay reforms and public investment.
• Weak capacity and delays in technical assistance have hindered the implementation of structural benchmarks.
• Natural disaster risks and external shocks remain significant threats to economic stability.

Conclusion

The IMF staff supports the request for a one-year extension of the ECF arrangement to lock in progress and complete key reforms, particularly in the fiscal area. The 2014 budget includes reforms aimed at improving revenue collection, transparency, and fiscal sustainability. The economic outlook remains challenging, with moderate growth expected in FY2014 and continued inflation and exchange rate depreciation pressures. The authorities are committed to addressing these challenges through administrative and structural reforms.