沙特水泥行业-39页

The Saudi cement sector is expected to grow positively due to economic recovery following Vision 2030 mega projects, urbanization, and government spending on infrastructure. Key drivers include improved oil prices, fiscal stability, and increasing demand for construction materials.

• Saudi Cement (SACCO): Rated Accumulate with a target price of SAR 63, offering 10.7% upside. Benefits from underutilized capacity and strategic location near mega projects, with expected revenue CAGR of 5% through increased sales volume and better realizations.

• City Cement (CITYC): Rated Buy with a target price of SAR 26.5, offering 20% upside. Positioned to gain market share through mega project proximity and potential acquisition of Umm Al-Qura Cement, with revenue growing at 10% CAGR driven by volume and price increases.

• Qassim Cement (QACCO): Rated Hold with a target price of SAR 64.3, indicating a slight downside. Full capacity limits volume growth; however, expected better realizations and solid dividends may provide revenue upside through margin expansion.

• Yamama Cement (YACCO): Rated Accumulate with a target price of SAR 38, offering 14.7% upside. Capacity expansion planned post-2025 is expected to boost volumes, with target 16% revenue growth driven by price recovery and efficiencies.

Major risks include slow construction activity pickup, demand fluctuations, falling cement prices, and concentration in the Saudi market. Overall, the sector benefits from sustained economic diversification and government investments in infrastructure, with solid dividend yields supporting income-focused investors.