2016年-世界发展银行全球_Country_Partnership_Framework_for_the_Lebanese_Republic_for_the_Period_FY17-FY22_115页_1mb

Lebanon Country Partnership Framework (CPF) FY17-FY22 Summary

I. Core Content

The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Lebanon, covering the period FY17-FY22, outlines the World Bank Group (WBG) strategy to address the country's development challenges, particularly those stemming from the Syria refugee crisis. It emphasizes inclusive growth, strengthening state institutions, and enhancing public service delivery to ensure long-term stability and prosperity.

The CPF is aligned with the WBG Regional Strategy for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), focusing on building peace and stability by tackling the social, economic, and institutional drivers of conflict. It also integrates the gender dimension and supports private sector development to create employment opportunities and promote economic resilience.

II. Main Objectives

• Mitigate the immediate and long-term impact of the Syria crisis on Lebanon.
• Strengthen state institutions to improve governance and public service delivery.
• Expand economic opportunities and increase human capital.
• Support the Government of Lebanon (GoL) in financing the regional and global public good of hosting a large refugee population.
• Promote a more holistic approach to the humanitarian-development continuum.

III. Key Focus Areas

The CPF centers on two primary focus areas:

1. Expand access to and quality of service delivery:

   • Improve public services such as education, health, and water supply.
   • Enhance the social contract between the state and citizens.
   • Address confessional and sectarian imbalances caused by the refugee influx.

2. Expand economic opportunities and increase human capital:

   • Support private sector development through the International Finance Corporation (IFC).
   • Promote employment generation in key sectors.
   • Foster economic inclusion and resilience.

IV. WBG Partnership Framework

The CPF is guided by four principles:

• Selectivity: Focus on high-impact investments and analytical work in priority sectors.
• Implementation: Prioritize the effective implementation of existing projects and use it as a basis for new operations.
• Partnerships: Strengthen collaboration with bilateral donors, UN agencies, and other stakeholders.
• Flexibility: Allow the Bank Group to adapt to a dynamic and unpredictable environment over the six-year period.

V. Financial Support Mechanisms

• The Middle East and North Africa Concessional Financing Facility (CFF) is a key initiative to:
  • Increase financing for countries affected by refugee influxes and conflicts.
  • Create a platform for coordination between international financial institutions and the UN.
  • Provide more favorable financing terms for MENA countries, especially those affected by the Syria refugee crisis.
• The IBRD/IDA program and IFC portfolio will be combined to reduce the effective interest rate on loans to concessional levels.

VI. Country Context and Development Agenda

A. Sociopolitical and Institutional Factors

• Lebanon is a small open economy with a high middle-income status, but it faces fragility and elevated risks of violence and conflict.
• The confessional system of governance has historically contributed to political instability and institutional weakness.
• The 1975–1990 civil war and the Arab-Israeli conflict have left deep scars on the country's governance, infrastructure, and macro-economy.
• The Syria refugee crisis has further disrupted the confessional balance and increased the demographic and socio-economic burden.

B. Recent Economic Developments and Outlook

• The Lebanese economy has shown moderate growth since the end of the civil war, but with high volatility due to security shocks.
• The services sector, historically a key growth driver, has been severely impacted by the Syria crisis, contributing to low growth.
• Real estate and tourism are highly sensitive to security conditions and have been vulnerable to shocks since 2011.
• Macroeconomic vulnerabilities include:
  • High public debt-to-GDP ratio.
  • Twin deficits (fiscal and current account).
  • A dollarized, pegged economy.
  • A large banking sector with significant assets.
• The fiscal policy is non-transparent, inefficient, and capture-prone, with budget processes in disarray.

C. Poverty and Jobs

• Over 3.3 million people out of a population of 5.9 million are poor or vulnerable.
• 52% of registered Syrian refugees are unable to meet their basic survival needs.
• 80% of working-age refugee men are employed in the informal sector.
• Human development indicators are high, but economic development is hampered by institutional weaknesses and lack of reforms.

D. Constraints to the Development Agenda

• Political paralysis and confessional divisions have limited reform efforts.
• Institutional inefficiencies and weak accountability have contributed to poor governance.
• Unsustainable fiscal policies and revenue-eroding measures have worsened public debt and macroeconomic instability.
• Weak implementation of past fiscal adjustment programs has left the country vulnerable to future economic shocks.

VII. Key Initiatives and Projects

• IBRD-financed projects totaling US$494 million have been approved and are now under implementation.
• The Lebanon Crisis Response Plan (LCRP) and the Lebanon Syria Crisis Trust Fund (LSCTF) are key instruments for addressing refugee-related challenges.
• The 2nd Emergency Social Protection (ESPISP II) and the Subsidized Temporary Employment Program (STEP) are priority initiatives to support vulnerable populations.
• The CFF aims to scale up assistance for refugee-hosting countries and conflict-affected regions.

VIII. Risk Management

• The CPF emphasizes risk management through transparent and accountable governance.
• It promotes public financial management (PFM) reforms to enhance fiscal sustainability.
• The World Bank Group (WBG) and UN agencies are working together to coordinate humanitarian and development efforts.

IX. Supporting Documents and Tools

• The CPF is informed by the Lebanon Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) and the WBG Gender Strategy.
• Stakeholder consultations were conducted in Beirut and Tripoli involving civil society, academia, private sector, and government representatives.
• The CPF includes a results framework and performance indicators to monitor progress.
• Figure 1 shows the distribution of Syrian refugees in Lebanon as of January 31, 2016.
• Figure 2 and 3 illustrate GDP growth and its contributors on both expenditure and production sides.
• Figure 4 highlights Lebanon's comparative competitiveness.
• Figure 5 shows Lebanon's gross public debt.
• Table 1 provides selected economic indicators from 2013 to 2018.

X. Conclusion

The CPF aims to renew the social contract and enhance resilience in Lebanon, particularly in the context of the Syria refugee crisis. It emphasizes governance, public service delivery, and private sector development as key levers for inclusive growth and stability. The CFF and coordinated humanitarian-development engagement are central to achieving these goals, with a focus on long-term development and fiscal sustainability.