2001年-世界发展银行全球_Bulgaria___The_Dual_Challenge_of____________Transition_and_Accession_228页_17mb

报告摘要

Summary of the World Bank Country Study on Bulgaria

Core Content

This World Bank Country Study assesses Bulgaria's progress in transitioning from a planned to a market economy and preparing for European Union (EU) accession. It focuses on economic developments during the 1990s, especially the 1997–1999 period, and evaluates the structural and institutional reforms implemented, their impact, and the challenges ahead in meeting the EU accession agenda.

Main Views

Macroeconomic Stability

Challenges: Bulgaria faced a series of stabilization policies and a slow pace of structural reforms in the early 1990s, leading to economic instability.
Transition: The 1997 general elections marked the end of the unstable period. The introduction of a Currency Board Arrangement (CBA) in July 1997 and sound macroeconomic policies led to a significant economic recovery.
Performance: The country experienced a 3% real GDP growth annually in 1998–99, with inflation stabilized and a balanced government budget. However, external imbalances, particularly a current account deficit of 5.5% of GDP, grew due to factors like the Russian crisis, the Kosovo war, and restructuring of the manufacturing sector.
Investment: The share of gross domestic investment in GDP doubled between 1996 and 2000, reaching 16%, but remains below the levels of other fast-growing economies.

Public-Private Interface

Key Steps: Four critical steps are outlined for improving the public-private interface:
1. Creating stability and predictability in the macro and policy environment.
2. Removing assets from state ownership and eliminating direct intervention.
3. Building a public framework (laws, regulations, and administrative procedures) to guide private sector behavior.
4. Ensuring the framework functions by improving the capacity, integrity, and oversight of the civil service.
Progress: The government made substantial progress in stabilizing the macroeconomic and policy environment, privatizing key assets, and enacting market-oriented legislation. However, completing secondary legislation and improving administrative procedures remain critical.

Public Administration

Challenges: Bulgaria's public administration faces complex challenges, particularly in meeting EU accession requirements.
Reforms: The government has initiated a major reform strategy to restructure the public administration, aiming to create a market-oriented, client-oriented system.
Issues: There are concerns about the fragmentation of the central civil service, underdeveloped human resource management, and the depth of political appointments. The lack of skilled human resources and low remuneration also hinder development.

Financial Markets

Stability and Liberalization: The financial sector has seen significant developments post-crisis, including liberalization and improved financial intermediation.
EU Requirements: The study highlights the need for developing stable and competitive financial markets to comply with EU accession criteria.

Labor Market and Social Policy

Adjustment Process: The labor market has undergone significant adjustment, leading to rising unemployment and a decline in living standards.
Social Protection: Social protection reform is a major challenge, with the need to comply with the Acquis Communautaire (EU legal framework).
Reforms: Short and medium-term reforms are necessary to improve the labor market, social protection, and overall economic competitiveness.

Domestic Markets and Trade

Contestability: Ensuring the contestability of domestic markets is crucial for integration into EU markets.
Trade Dynamics: Bulgaria's exports have been affected by external shocks, and there is a need to reorient trade towards market-driven patterns.
EU Integration: Integration into EU markets requires addressing competitiveness, factor intensities, and pollution in export sectors.

Agriculture and Food Sector

Sectoral Performance: The agriculture sector has seen partial privatization but remains internationally non-competitive.
Reforms: Key areas for reform include completing land reform, improving rural financial policies, and aligning with EU agricultural policies (CAP).

Network Utilities

Challenges: The energy and transportation sectors face significant challenges in transitioning to a market-oriented model.
Regulatory and Structural Issues: Effective regulation, pricing policies, and funding mechanisms for universal service are critical. Access to bottleneck infrastructure and the need for competitive neutrality are also highlighted.

Environmental Compliance

EU Directives: Bulgaria must comply with EU environmental directives, which involve substantial investment.
Costs: Environmental compliance costs are expected to be high, potentially reaching 11–16% of GDP annually over a 20-year period.
Investments: Both public and private investments are necessary to meet these standards, with implications for household budgets.

Key Information

Author(s): The study was prepared by Leila Zlaoui, with contributions from various World Bank staff and experts.
Date: May 2001
Purpose: To evaluate Bulgaria's progress in economic transition and EU accession.
Sources: The report is based on World Bank missions conducted between November 1999 and May 2000.
Funding and Support: The study was supported by the European Union Phare Program and the Bulgarian Government.
Fiscal Management: Bulgaria's fiscal position appears strong, but the country faces challenges in managing debt, especially under the CBA.
Investment Climate: Improving the investment climate is essential for attracting both domestic and foreign investment.
Social Costs: The transition and accession processes involve significant social costs, which need to be mitigated to maintain social stability.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Continued Reforms: Bulgaria needs to continue with structural reforms, especially in infrastructure, labor markets, and public administration.
Fiscal Stability: Maintaining macroeconomic stability and managing fiscal risks are critical.
Environmental Compliance: Meeting EU environmental standards requires substantial investment and regulatory alignment.
Combating Corruption: A comprehensive strategy to combat corruption, including legal and institutional reforms, is necessary to improve governance and public trust.
Public Investment: Public investment in human capital, administrative restructuring, and infrastructure development is essential to support growth and attract private investment.