JPMorgan_Econ_FI-China_March_FX_reserves_rose_less_than_expected_CNY_depreci...-114560902_8页_1mb

报告摘要

J.P.Morgan Asia-Pacific Economic Research

China FX Reserves and CNY Depreciation Pressure

Key Points

FX Reserves Update
- China's foreign exchange reserves increased by $13.4bn in March, reaching $3.24tn, slightly below J.P.Morgan's forecast of $3254bn and broker consensus of $3269bn.
Capital Flows
- Estimated capital outflows widened to $58bn in March, influenced by trade/current account surplus, valuation gains from the USD index decline, and limited foreign asset inflows.
- PBOC maintained a daily CNY fixing near 7.20, capping intraday trading within the 2% band to defend the 7.30-7.35 range, but there is no immediate structural shift in policy.
Trade and Tariff Developments
- Reciprocal tariffs were imposed on April 2 (34% on China) and April 4 (China retaliated with 34% tariffs on US goods).
- J.P.Morgan downgrades US growth forecasts to recession risk and increases the global recession probability to 60%. Market reactions included USD index drops and CNY depreciation.
Currency Dynamics
- CNY breached 7.30 for the first time in two months, signaling limited PBOC tolerance for depreciation but maintaining a bias to avoid breaching the key level.
- USD weakness supports CNY competitiveness in non-US markets, but tariff risks prompt reevaluation of China's foreign exchange strategy.
Market and Capital Flows
- FX settlement ratio fell to 47.8%, indicating weak USD selling interest and cautious capital flows.
- China's gold reserves increased, while US Treasury holdings trend downward, reflecting gradual de-dollarization but continued gold purchases.

Conclusion

China's foreign reserves met expectations slightly below estimates, driven by valuation gains. The PBOC is balancing currency defense amid trade tensions, but monetizing tariff costs through depreciation could amplify capital outflows. J.P.Morgan anticipates a cautious stance, aligning with broader concerns over global slowdown.

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