公用事业规模电池储能成本预测-2023年更新-22页_576kb

Summary

This report provides an update on cost projections for utility-scale lithium-ion battery storage systems, focusing on 4-hour duration. It uses a literature-based methodology, normalizing costs to 2022 values and incorporating data from recent publications (2021-2023). Projections are for low, mid, and high scenarios, based on minimum, median, and maximum values from the literature. By 2030, costs are expected to decrease by 16-47% compared to 2022, with mid-range costs at $326/kWh, low at $245/kWh, and high at $403/kWh. By 2050, cost reductions reach 21-67%, with mid-range costs projected at $226/kWh. The report also includes operations and maintenance costs, assuming zero variable O&M, fixed O&M of 2.5% of $/kW capacity, a 15-year lifetime, and a round-trip efficiency of 85%. Key limitations include reliance on published data without accounting for factors like supply chain disruptions or policy impacts.

Methodology

• Based on a review of 2021-2023 publications, with costs normalized to 2022 values.
• Employs linear interpolation between defined points for cost trajectories.
• Uses equal weighting for all cost projections from the literature.

Results

• Utility-scale battery costs show significant variation, with near-term projections ranging from cost increases to substantial declines.
• Capital costs are modeled for energy and power components to calculate total system costs for various durations.
• Comparisons with previous projections indicate higher costs starting in 2022 due to an updated initial cost estimate.