20260901-招银国际-天数智芯-09903.HK-Trust_the_process_2H26_ramp_ahead_5页_1014kb

Iluvatar CoreX (9903 HK) Summary

Core Content

Iluvatar CoreX reported a significant revenue increase in 1H26, reaching RMB945.7mn, up 191.6% YoY and 33.3% HoH. However, the gross profit margin (GPM) dropped to 17.2% from 50.1% in 1H25 due to below-cost semiconductor component sales and an inventory write-down. Adjusted GPM, including the component loss and write-down, was approximately 43%, aligning with the GPGPU segment's performance but lower than previous periods due to a heavier inference mix.

The GPGPU segment saw strong growth, with revenue rising 231.0% YoY and 41.8% HoH to RMB916.1mn, representing 96.9% of total revenue. Training revenue increased 38.0% YoY to RMB261.9mn, while inference revenue surged 651.8% YoY and 159.7% HoH to RMB654.2mn, or 69.2% of total revenue. AI computing solution revenue declined 68.1% YoY to RMB13.6mn.

The net profit for 1H26 was RMB106mn, which includes RMB760mn of fair-value gains on financial assets. The company has revised its FY26E and FY27E GPM estimates downward by 16.1ppt and 0.9ppt, respectively, to reflect the 1H26 gross component loss and inventory write-down, as well as a more conservative product mix in the following period.

Key Views

• Revenue Growth: 1H26 revenue is 33% of the FY26E forecast, consistent with the seasonal weighting of FY25.
• Segment Performance: GPGPU segment is the primary revenue driver, with inference contributing significantly to growth.
• GPM Adjustments: Adjusted GPM for the core GPGPU segment is estimated at ~43%, which is broadly stable in 2H26 compared to 1H26.
• Investment Recommendation: Maintain a BUY rating with a target price adjusted to HK$872 from HK$878, based on an unchanged 25.8x 2027E P/S ratio, which is higher than the average of its peers (21.2x).
• Risks: Potential risks include supply-chain disruptions, weaker-than-expected demand, R&D setbacks, and slower inventory conversion.

Financial Highlights

Key Financial Metrics

• Revenue: Expected to grow significantly, with FY26E forecast at RMB2.84bn.
• GPM: Reduced in 1H26 to 17.2% but adjusted to ~43% when excluding component losses and write-downs.
• Net Profit: Expected to improve significantly in FY27E and FY28E, with a notable increase in FY28E.
• P/S Ratio: Reduced from 165.9x in FY24A to 31.5x in FY26E, with further decline to 6.9x in FY28E.

Key Risks and Considerations

• Supply Chain: Disruptions could impact operations and profitability.
• Demand: Weaker-than-expected demand may affect revenue growth.
• R&D: Delays or setbacks in product development could hinder progress.
• Inventory Conversion: Slower conversion may affect cash flow and working capital.

Shareholding and Stock Data

• Mkt Cap: HK$104,425.8mn
• Avg 3 mths t/o: HK$1,227.3mn
• Total Issued Shares: 269.0mn
• Share Performance:
  • 1-mth: -8.7%
  • 3-mth: -22.4%
  • 6-mth: 25.2%

Peer Comparison

Analyst Notes

• Analyst: Kevin ZHANG and Aaron GUO
• Contact: Kevin ZHANG (852) 3761 8727, kevinzhang@cmbi.com.hk; Aaron GUO (852) 3916 3715, aaronguo@cmbi.com.hk

Analyst Certification

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect their personal views and that there are no conflicts of interest.

CMBIGM Ratings

• BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
• OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
• MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
• UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Disclosures

• The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors.
• Past performance does not indicate future results.
• The value of investments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed.
• CMBIGM is not liable for any loss or damage resulting from reliance on the report.
• The report may not be reproduced, reprinted, sold, redistributed, or published without prior written consent from CMBIGM.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• United Kingdom: Report is only for persons falling within Article 19(5) or Article 49(2) of the Order.
• United States: Report is for major US institutional investors only.
• Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBISG, an exempt financial adviser.

Summary

Iluvatar CoreX is positioned for a sales ramp in 2H26, with strong growth in the GPGPU segment driven by inference demand. Despite a decline in GPM due to component losses and inventory write-downs, adjusted GPM remains stable. The company maintains a BUY rating with a revised target price of HK$872, supported by its volume delivery capability and strong AI compute demand in China. Key risks include supply chain issues, weaker demand, and slower inventory conversion. Financial metrics indicate a significant growth trajectory with improved net profit and EBIT in future years. The report is subject to various legal and regulatory disclosures, and is intended for specific investor categories.