20150324-穆迪服务-Welcome_to_the_March_Issue_of_ABS_Spotlig_54页_2mb

ABS Spotlight Summary - March 2015

Core Content

This edition of ABS Spotlight discusses updates to rating methodologies for structured finance securities, particularly focusing on the new Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment for banks. It also analyzes the credit implications of low oil prices across various US ABS sectors.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Updates to Rating Methodologies

• Moody's Investors Service updated its rating methodologies for structured finance securities to incorporate a new Counterparty Risk (CR) Assessment for banks.
• The CR Assessment reflects a bank's ability to avoid default on senior operating obligations and other commitments, but is not a formal rating.
• The assessment considers the issuer's standalone strength, likelihood of affiliate and government support, and resolution steps authorities can take to preserve key operations.
• These updates are part of the revised bank rating methodology and were proposed in the "Request for Comment" published on 8 January 2015.

2. Credit Impact of Low Oil Prices

• General Credit Positive Effect: Lower oil prices are broadly credit positive for most ABS sectors, especially unsecured consumer credit (credit cards, student loans, personal loans), due to increased disposable income for consumers.
• Auto-related ABS:
  • Auto Loans: Credit positive as consumers have more money to pay off loans.
  • Auto Leases: Mixed impact. While consumers can afford lease payments, a shift toward less fuel-efficient vehicles (trucks and SUVs) may lead to residual value declines if gas prices rise.
• Dealer Floorplan ABS: Mixed impact. Increased demand for new vehicles may boost payment rates, but a shift in consumer preference to less fuel-efficient vehicles could lead to temporary payment rate slowdowns.
• Rental Car ABS: Credit positive due to improved financial health of rental car companies.
• Commercial and Esoteric ABS:
  • Aircraft ABS: Credit positive as airlines benefit from lower fuel costs, leading to improved profitability and potentially extended lease terms.
  • Container ABS: Credit positive due to reduced fuel costs for shipping companies.
  • Equipment ABS (Agriculture & Construction): Minimal benefit as fuel costs are a small portion of total expenses.
  • Trucking Equipment ABS: Credit neutral as fuel surcharges are passed on to end users.
  • Railcar ABS: Credit negative due to reduced demand for tank cars and regulatory costs.
  • Fleet Lease ABS: Credit negative due to exposure to the oil industry, especially for companies involved in exploration and production.
  • Solar and Natural Gas ABS: Credit neutral as oil and gas prices do not directly impact these sectors, and natural gas VPP deals are fully hedged.
  • Timeshare ABS: Credit positive, except for deals with significant exposure to Texas, where the local economy may be negatively affected by low oil prices.

3. Decentralized Servicing Models

• Moody's analyzes the strengths and risks of decentralized servicing models in the consumer loan sector.
• These models are effective in loan generation but pose risks in terms of operational and credit management.

4. Like-Kind Exchange Programs in Auto Leases

• The use of like-kind exchange programs by auto leasing finance companies introduces incremental risks to auto lease ABS.
• These programs may defer taxable gains upon vehicle sale, potentially affecting asset values when vehicles are returned at the end of leases.

5. Credit Card ABS and CR Assessments

• Moody's now uses CR Assessments as a proxy to evaluate the likelihood of credit card business closure.
• If the credit card business is not considered a core activity, Moody's may use a lower reference point to assess portfolio wind-down.

6. CR Assessments Implementation

• CR Assessments are assigned over time, with approximate values used for credit analysis until formal assessments are available.
• Approximate CR Assessments are expressed on alpha-numeric scales with a "(cr)" modifier.

Additional Sections

7. Econ Dashboard & Commentary

• Includes an overview of the impact of oil prices on the US economy and ABS sectors.

8. Surveillance Recap

• Summarizes recent credit risk developments and rating actions.

9. Issuance Toteboard

• Provides a snapshot of ABS issuance in the US for the month.

10. Performance Indices

• Includes Prime Auto ABS, Credit Card ABS, and Private Student Loan ABS indices.

11. 2015 Outlooks

• Highlights the credit outlook for various ABS sectors, including Auto Loan ABS, Credit Card ABS, Private Student Loan ABS, FFELP Student Loan ABS, Commercial & Esoteric ABS, and Canadian ABS.

12. Performance Summaries

• Offers a summary of performance for Auto Loan ABS, Auto Lease ABS, and Auto Floorplan ABS.

13. Quick Check Portals

• Provides access to ABS Quick Check and Structured Finance Quick Check tools.

Key Contacts

• Matias Langer: Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.7296, matias.langer@moodys.com
• Amelia (Amy) Tobey: Vice President - Senior Credit Officer, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.7922, amelia.tobey@moodys.com
• Aron Bergman: Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212-553-1419, aron.bergman@moodys.com
• Pedro Sancholuz Ruda: Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.1668, pedro.sancholuzruda@moodys.com
• Jinyang Wang: Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.4731, zoe.wang@moodys.com
• Benjamin Shih: Vice President - Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.2923, benjamin.shih@moodys.com
• Jiang Xu: Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.4485, jiang.xu@moodys.com
• Joseph Snailer: Senior Vice President, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.4506, Joseph.snailer@moodys.com
• Sarah S. Huang: Assistant Vice President - Analyst, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.3894, sarah.huang@moodys.com
• James Ahern: Managing Director - Americas Structured Finance, Moody's Investors Service, +1.212.553.7139, jim.ahern@moodys.com

Conclusion

The March 2015 ABS Spotlight provides a comprehensive overview of how Moody's updated rating methodologies and low oil prices affect the US ABS market. The analysis highlights both positive and mixed credit impacts across various asset classes, emphasizing the importance of counterparty risk assessments and market-specific factors like vehicle mix and fuel cost exposure.