2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_The_Gambia_First_Review_Under_the_Extended_Credit_Facility_Request_for_Nonobservance_of_Performance_Criterion_and_Request_for_Rephasing_of_Reviews_88页_1mb

Summary of THE GAMBIA: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

The Gambia's economy is recovering from the severe drought of 2011, with real GDP growth turning positive in 2012 and expected to continue in the near term. The growth is driven by the tourism sector and a partial rebound in agriculture. However, inflation has increased due to depreciation of the dalasi and the introduction of a value-added tax (VAT) in 2013. The economy also faces a heavy debt burden, particularly from domestic borrowing, which consumes a significant portion of government revenue and poses rollover risks.

Economic Outlook and Risks

• Growth Outlook: The Gambia is expected to experience strong GDP growth of 8½–9 percent in 2013 and 2014, driven by agricultural recovery and a return to trend growth in other sectors. After full agricultural recovery, growth is projected to stabilize at around 5½ percent annually.
• Inflation: Inflation is expected to rise to 6 percent in 2013, primarily due to the VAT and depreciation, but should be brought back to the target of 5 percent in subsequent years.
• Balance of Payments: Weaknesses in the balance of payments have delayed the Central Bank of The Gambia's (CBG) plans to build up international reserves. However, the country maintains an ample stock of international reserves, providing a buffer against shocks.
• Risks: The economy faces both upside and downside risks. Upside potential includes successful implementation of the Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment (PAGE), while downside risks include vulnerability to commodity price shocks, weather-related disruptions, and spillovers from global and regional economic developments.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policies

• The government aims to reduce net domestic borrowing (NDB) to ½ percent of GDP from 2014 onwards, as part of its fiscal adjustment.
• Revenue growth is projected to slightly exceed GDP growth in 2013, supported by the new VAT and a reduction in fuel subsidies.
• Expenditures are expected to grow modestly, with a focus on poverty-reducing spending. The authorities have submitted a supplementary budget to address extrabudgetary spending and improve fiscal transparency.
• Medium-term fiscal reforms are planned to enhance revenue collection, simplify the tax system, and broaden the tax base.

B. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies and Financial Sector Stability

• The CBG will implement a tighter monetary policy to control inflation and depreciation, with reduced targets for reserve and broad money growth.
• A flexible exchange rate policy is maintained, with the CBG intervening to stabilize the foreign exchange (FX) market. The CBG has temporarily suspended its plan to build up international reserves.
• The banking system remains well capitalized, but there are high nonperforming loans. The CBG is working to improve supervision and reduce financial intermediation costs through new reporting systems and reforms to the Banking Act.

C. Debt Sustainability and Financing the PAGE

• The Gambia's external debt risk has improved to "moderate" due to better institutional capacity and revised external debt indicators, but domestic debt remains a concern.
• The government has secured a US$28 million non-concessional loan from the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) for the rehabilitation of the Gambia Groundnut Corporation (GGC), despite the grant element being below the ECF threshold.
• The DSA indicates that the loan does not significantly weaken the country's debt sustainability, and the authorities have committed to not taking on additional non-concessional external loans.
• The success of the PAGE will depend on institutional capacity building, particularly in the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs, to ensure effective implementation of public-private partnerships and attract private investment.

D. Improving Economic Statistics

• The quality of economic and financial data is a challenge, affecting policy-making and program monitoring.
• Weak balance of payments data hampers the ability to anticipate exchange rate pressures and manage international reserve accumulation.
• Improved data collection and scrutiny are necessary for better economic forecasting and policy implementation.

Key Information

• GDP Growth: 4 percent in 2012, expected to rise to 8½–9 percent in 2013 and 2014, and stabilize at 5½ percent after agricultural recovery.
• Inflation: 5.4 percent in March 2013, projected to reach 6 percent in 2013, with a target of 5 percent in subsequent years.
• Debt: Domestic debt is high, with a NDB to GDP ratio of 1½ percent in 2013, and interest costs consume 22½ percent of government revenue.
• International Reserves: The CBG maintains a stock of about 4½ months of import cover, with plans to gradually increase it to 5 months over the medium term.
• Fiscal Adjustment: The government is taking steps to reduce domestic borrowing, improve revenue collection, and insulate against extrabudgetary spending.
• PAGE Implementation: The Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment is a key policy agenda, with a focus on agriculture, education, health, and infrastructure. Success depends on institutional reforms and effective public-private partnerships.
• Exchange Rate Policy: The CBG maintains a flexible exchange rate policy, but the government's directive in October 2012 created uncertainty and led to some capital flight.

Main Viewpoints

• The Gambia's economy is in a recovery phase following the 2011 drought.
• Fiscal and monetary policies are being adjusted to stabilize the economy and reduce debt burdens.
• The introduction of VAT and the reduction of fuel subsidies are key revenue measures.
• The CBG is focusing on maintaining macroeconomic stability through a restrained monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate regime.
• Institutional capacity building is critical for the success of the PAGE and long-term economic growth.