战略与国际研究中心-Comprehensive-Partnership-Nudges-US_14页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets (Volume III | Issue 18 | September 27, 2012)

Core Content

The document provides an overview of key developments in Southeast Asia, focusing on U.S.-Indonesia relations, regional issues, and events in various countries. It highlights the progress and challenges in bilateral and multilateral cooperation, as well as political, economic, and security-related developments across the region.

Main Points of U.S.-Indonesia Relations

Comprehensive Partnership: The U.S. and Indonesia have deepened their strategic cooperation since the 2008 launch of the Comprehensive Partnership, with the third annual U.S.-Indonesia Joint Commission Meeting held in Washington on September 20, 2012.
Military Cooperation: Significant strides have been made in military relations, particularly after the U.S. lifted sanctions against Indonesia's Kopassus special forces in 2010. Joint exercises, training, and defense trade have increased, including the purchase of Apache helicopters and the sale of refurbished F-16s.
Economic Cooperation: Despite progress in military ties, trade and investment remain a challenge. U.S.-Indonesia trade was valued at $7.4 billion in 2011, which is only 10% of U.S. trade with ASEAN. U.S. investment in Indonesia was $1.5 billion, or 5% of total foreign investment.
Challenges: Indonesia's regulatory environment and corruption continue to deter U.S. investment. The country ranks 129th in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business survey, and manufacturing's share of GDP has declined.
Key Projects: A $600 million MCC compact focuses on renewable energy, maternal and child nutrition, and public procurement reforms. The Celanese ethanol plant and Lion Air's aircraft order are examples of successful U.S.-Indonesia economic collaboration.

Regional Developments

Myanmar

Aung San Suu Kyi: Called for easing U.S. sanctions and received the Congressional Gold Medal. She urged the people of Myanmar to lead their political transition.
Prisoner Pardons: Over 500 prisoners, including 80 prisoners of conscience, were pardoned ahead of the U.S. General Assembly.
Peace Talks: The Kachin Independence Organization refused to engage in peace talks, citing ongoing conflict. The U.S. House passed a bill to allow aid to Myanmar, contingent on debt clearance.
Protests: Peace protesters marched in Yangon and Mon State, calling for an end to ethnic conflicts.

Indonesia

Jakarta Governor Election: Exit polls indicated Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's victory in the September 20 election.
Bumi Scandal: The mining company Bumi faced a financial investigation leading to CEO resignation and a drop in share prices.
Anti-Terror Operations: Indonesian forces arrested 10 militants, with evidence suggesting increased domestic targeting by extremists.

Philippines

Cybercrime Law: President Aquino signed the Cybercrime Prevention Act, which has drawn criticism for its broad definition of cybercrime.
South China Sea: The Philippines officially renamed part of the South China Sea as the "West Philippine Sea" and will host the ASEAN Maritime Forum to address regional security concerns.
Economic Initiatives: The central bank authorized bond sales to reduce borrowing costs and improve fiscal management.

Thailand

Truth Commission Report: Released a report on the 2010 political violence, which was seen as fair but not without controversy.
Southern Insurgency: The government and opposition discussed strategies to combat southern insurgency, with concerns over the effectiveness of security-focused approaches.
Floods: Heavy rains led to flooding in northern provinces, prompting government efforts to reinforce flood barriers.

Malaysia

Anti-Islam Video Protests: Demonstrations over the "Innocence of Muslims" video led to embassy closures in several Southeast Asian countries.
Rare Earths Plant: Lynas received a temporary license to operate a rare earths plant, despite environmental and community concerns.

Vietnam

Economic Stability: Prime Minister Dung emphasized Vietnam's macroeconomic stability, dismissing rumors of needing IMF aid.
Legal Crackdown: Three bloggers were sentenced in an Internet crackdown, with Vietnam labeled an "Enemy of the Internet."
Land Law Revisions: The National Assembly Standing Committee proposed revisions to land pricing and compensation guidelines.

South China Sea

Renaming Initiative: The Philippines renamed disputed waters as the "West Philippine Sea" to assert sovereignty.
Security Warnings: U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta warned of the risk of war if disputes continue with provocative behavior.
ASEAN Mediation: ASEAN proposed an advisory group to address South China Sea tensions, with a focus on dialogue and cooperation.

ASEAN

ASEAN Exchanges: Malaysia and Singapore launched cross-border trading as part of the ASEAN Exchanges initiative, aiming to create a unified trading platform.
ASEAN Economic Community: The AEC is set to begin on December 31, 2015, with member states working to achieve integration by that date.

Timor-Leste

ASEAN Membership: Indonesia reaffirmed its support for Timor-Leste's bid to join ASEAN, despite concerns from some members about the timing.
Peace Building Forum: Timor-Leste hosted a regional peace building forum, with its leaders emphasizing the importance of conflict resolution.

Singapore

Internal Security Act: Archbishop Nicholas Chia withdrew a letter criticizing the law, sparking controversy over government pressure.
Events and Talks: Singapore will host several events, including a CSIS discussion with Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board chairman and a film screening on WWII.

Key Takeaways

The U.S.-Indonesia Comprehensive Partnership has significantly enhanced bilateral relations, especially in military and democratic cooperation.
Economic ties remain underdeveloped, with Indonesia's trade and investment with the U.S. lagging behind smaller nations.
Regional security issues, particularly in the South China Sea, remain a major concern, with the Philippines and ASEAN seeking to promote dialogue and cooperation.
Political and legal developments in countries like Myanmar, Vietnam, and the Philippines reflect ongoing challenges to democratic governance and human rights.
ASEAN is moving toward greater economic integration, with the ASEAN Economic Community set to launch in 2015.

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