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Summary of "High-Emitting Sectors: Challenges and Opportunities for Low-Carbon Suppliers"

Core Content

This report, developed in collaboration with Deloitte, examines the challenges and opportunities for low-carbon suppliers in six high-emitting sectors: aviation, shipping, trucking, aluminium, cement and concrete, and steel, as well as carbon dioxide removal (CDR). It also highlights cross-sector challenges and outlines the role of the First Movers Coalition (FMC) and First Suppliers Hub (FSH) in accelerating the adoption of low-carbon technologies.

Main Viewpoints

• Strategic collaboration is essential for the successful deployment of low-carbon technologies.
• Supplier engagement is critical in driving innovation and scaling up decarbonization solutions.
• Cross-sector challenges include the lack of emissions measurement standards, limited access to inputs, and buyer risk aversion.
• FMC's role is to generate credible demand for low-carbon goods and support suppliers through shared platforms and procurement frameworks.

Key Information

1. Aviation

• Current Emissions Profile: The aviation industry is off-track from the IEA's 2050 net-zero scenario, with high emissions intensity due to reliance on jet fuel and limited alternatives.
• FMC Commitment: Airlines and air freight purchasers aim to replace at least 5% of conventional jet fuel with sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) or zero-carbon propulsion technologies by 2030.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF): Includes biofuels and synthetic fuels (e.g., HEFA, PtL, e-SAF). SAF85 (emissions reduction >85%) is the focus, though currently limited.
  • Alternative Propulsion Technologies: Battery-electric, hydrogen turbine, and fuel cell aircraft show potential for short-haul flights but are not yet scalable for long-haul.
• Supplier Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Challenges: High production costs, uncertain demand signals, and a complex supply chain.
  • Opportunities: Growing public interest, flexible offtake agreements, and partnerships with industry leaders and governments.

2. Shipping

• Current Emissions Profile: Shipping accounts for ~2% of global GHG emissions, with a heavy reliance on fossil fuels.
• FMC Commitment: Shipping companies aim to adopt low-carbon fuels such as methanol and ammonia, and explore "book and claim" schemes.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Low-carbon hydrogen and sustainable CO2 (biogenic or recycled) as fuels.
  • Methanol and ammonia produced with low-carbon inputs.
• Supplier Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Challenges: High costs of low-emission fuels, limited access to funding, and gaps in offtake expectations.
  • Opportunities: Policy support, carbon taxes, and mass-balance mechanisms can drive investment and growth.

3. Trucking

• Current Emissions Profile: Trucking accounts for ~4% of global GHG emissions, with significant reliance on diesel.
• FMC Commitment: Encourages the adoption of battery-electric (BEV) and fuel-cell electric (FCEV) vehicles.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • BEVs and FCEVs powered by renewable energy and hydrogen.
  • Alternative fuels with zero tailpipe emissions.
• Supplier Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Challenges: High upfront costs, limited hydrogen refueling infrastructure, and difficulty in securing power allocation for large EV fleets.
  • Opportunities: Tax credits, grants, and innovative business models like TaaS and shared charging infrastructure can reduce costs and support adoption.

4. Aluminium

• Current Emissions Profile: Aluminium is a major emitter, with ~2% of global GHG emissions, due to energy-intensive production processes.
• FMC Commitment: Focuses on emissions-free smelting technologies, renewable energy use, and CCUS.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Emissions-free technologies like inert anodes and carbo-chlorination.
  • Use of green hydrogen and renewable energy in electrolysis.
• Supplier Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Challenges: High costs of emerging refining technologies, competition in recycling, and lack of global standards.
  • Opportunities: Partnerships with waste management and governments, and development of procurement-ready documentation.

5. Cement and Concrete

• Current Emissions Profile: Cement and concrete account for ~6% of global GHG emissions, driven by limestone use and energy consumption.
• FMC Commitment: Encourages the use of non-fossil alternatives and CCUS.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • Replacing clinker with SCMs.
  • Alternative chemistries and processes.
  • Point-source CCUS.
• Supplier Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Challenges: High decarbonization costs, competition for investment, and potential scarcity of SCMs.
  • Opportunities: Policy mechanisms like the EU’s CBAM, and collaboration with regional stakeholders to shape standards.

6. Steel

• Current Emissions Profile: Steel production contributes ~8% of global GHG emissions, primarily due to coal-based processes.
• FMC Commitment: Supports the transition to low-carbon steel production through policy and financial mechanisms.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • DRI-EAF (Direct Reduced Iron-Electric Arc Furnace) and Scrap-EAF.
  • Use of novel reducing agents like low-carbon hydrogen and biomass.
• Supplier Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Challenges: High transition costs, long asset life cycles, and lack of global standards.
  • Opportunities: Policy support, early market entry, and collaboration with buyers to de-risk technologies.

7. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)

• Current Emissions Profile: CDR is not a direct emitter but a critical solution for balancing residual emissions.
• FMC Commitment: Supports CDR through demand aggregation and collective purchasing.
• Decarbonization Pathways:
  • DACCS (Direct Air Capture with Carbon Storage).
  • BECCS (Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage).
  • Biochar and Enhanced Rock Weathering.
• Supplier Challenges and Opportunities:
  • Challenges: High costs, lack of MRV standards, and policy support.
  • Opportunities: Collective demand, transparent practices, and alignment with regional and global climate goals.

Cross-Sector Challenges and Opportunities

Challenges

• Lack of Emissions Measurement Methods and Standards: Suppliers face difficulties in aligning with buyers and financiers due to inconsistent methodologies.
• Availability and Cost of Inputs: Limited access to sustainable feedstocks and high production costs are barriers.
• Buyer Risk Aversion and Unfamiliarity: Buyers may be hesitant to adopt new low-carbon solutions due to perceived risks and lack of understanding.

Opportunities

• Innovative Contracting Mechanisms: Can help mitigate risk and secure offtake agreements.
• Policy and Financial Support: Governments and financial institutions can play a pivotal role in enabling investment and reducing costs.
• Collaboration and Information Sharing: Platforms like the First Suppliers Hub (FSH) facilitate connections between suppliers and buyers.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of supplier leadership in the transition to low-carbon technologies. It underscores the need for industry collaboration, policy support, and innovative solutions to overcome the current barriers. The World Economic Forum and Deloitte are committed to accelerating the adoption of low-carbon technologies, and stakeholders are encouraged to engage with the First Movers Coalition and First Suppliers Hub to drive meaningful emission reductions.