2025-06-10-Jefferies-NextDC（NXT）_首份国际合同_11页_592kb

Summary of NextDC Equity Research Report

Company Overview

NextDC is an Australian technology company providing data center outsourcing solutions, connectivity services, and infrastructure management software. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Brisbane, it operates facilities in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Perth, and Canberra, expanding into Asia and New Zealand with a target of building over 1.5GW of IT capacity.

Market Analysis

Data center demand is strong due to cloud computing and AI, with NextDC securing contracts in Australia (especially Melbourne and Sydney) and expanding internationally to Malaysia (KL1 facility with 10MW first phase). The Malaysian market shows growth potential with supportive government policies, low vacancy rates, and competitive power tariffs.

Financial Highlights

NextDC's contracted capacity is ~244MW, with ~200MW remaining to sell in Sydney and Melbourne. Financial projections show revenue growth, with a price target of AUD18.00 (+29% from current AUD13.99). EBITDA is expected to reach 314.0 million AUD by 2027, trading at EV/EBITDA of 17.5x, lower than peer EQIX/DLR.

Valuation

Rated BUY by Jefferies with a DCF-based price target of AUD20.70 (upside 48%) or AUD12.60 (downside 10%). Trading at EV/Revenue of 17.9x and EV/EBITDA of 17.9x, lower than industry averages.

Risks

High capital expenditure required for new builds, competition from players like AirTrunk, dependency on hyperscalers driving prices down, and sensitivity to interest rate increases or regulatory changes.

Catalysts

Major contract wins in Sydney and Melbourne, completion of new builds in Asia/NZ, development approvals for sites like S5 and M4, and acceleration in contracted utilisation.

Analyst Recommendations

Jefferies recommends BUY, highlighting NextDC's expansion, strong demand, and valuation upside, while cautioning against competition and capital intensity.