2025-06-13-花旗集团-康宝莱公司（HLF）_康宝莱有限公司（HLF.N）2025年5月网络及应用程序流量数据_14页_331kb

Herbalife Ltd (HLF.N) Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a detailed analysis of Herbalife Ltd's (HLF.N) web and app traffic data for May 2025, along with investment ratings, valuation estimates, and risk factors. It is part of a broader investment research report by Citi Research, focusing on the company's performance and future outlook.

Key Takeaways

Global Web & App Traffic Trends

• myherbalife.com:

  • Average unique visitors declined by -28.8% Y/Y in May, worsening from -23.8% in April.
  • 2Q25 QTD unique visitors were -26.3% Y/Y vs. -19.7% in 1Q25.
  • Total visits fell by -28.7% Y/Y in May, compared to -28.4% in April.
  • 2Q25 QTD total visits were -28.6% Y/Y vs. -26.4% in 1Q25.

• Herbalife Shop App:

  • Avg active users declined by -10.3% Y/Y in May, slightly better than -10.5% in April.
  • 2Q25 QTD active users were -10.4% Y/Y vs. -9.9% in 1Q25.

U.S. Web Traffic Trends

• myherbalife.com:
  • Avg unique visitors dropped by -13.3% Y/Y in May, compared to -8.2% in April.
  • 2Q25 QTD unique visitors were -10.8% Y/Y vs. +1.8% in 1Q25.
  • Total visits fell by -17.9% Y/Y in May, worse than -4.8% in April.
  • 2Q25 QTD total visits were -11.6% Y/Y vs. -35.0% in 1Q25.

Mexico App Traffic Trends

• Herbalife Shop app avg active users declined by -7.1% Y/Y in May, improving from -10.8% in April.
• 2Q25 QTD active users were -9.0% Y/Y vs. -4.1% in 1Q25.

India App Traffic Trends

• Herbalife Shop app avg active users fell by -9.7% Y/Y in May, slightly better than -10.1% in April.
• 2Q25 QTD active users were -9.9% Y/Y vs. -7.3% in 1Q25.

Investment Strategy & Valuation

• Investment Rating: Buy (1)
• Target Price: US$11
• Expected Share Price Return: 33.2%
• Market Cap: US$841M
• Valuation Basis: Based on a ~5.25x CY25 EPS estimate of $2.12, which is ~60% below peer averages (vs. ~30% discount historically).
• Valuation Drivers:
  • Anticipated margin improvement from cost reduction initiatives.
  • Expected strong free cash flow (FCF) generation.
  • Continued balance sheet deleveraging.

Key Risks

• U.S. Market Adaptation: The company's ability to adapt to changes in the U.S. market is a key risk.
• Regulatory Changes: Potential changes in local regulations, especially in China, could affect operations.
• External Headwinds: FX fluctuations, launch costs for the Pro2col platform, and retaliatory tariffs may impact performance.
• Market Volatility: If actual performance deviates from expectations, the stock may underperform or outperform the target price.

Company Overview

• Business Segments: Herbalife Nutrition operates in five segments, with weight management being the largest contributor to sales (55% of 2024 sales).
• Sales & Margin: 2024 sales were $4.9 billion with an operating margin of ~10%.
• Geographic Exposure: 80% of sales are from outside the U.S.

Investment Rating Definitions

• Buy (1): ETR of 15% or more (or 25% or more for high-risk stocks).
• Neutral (2): No ETR assigned or insufficient drivers for a clear investment view.
• Sell (3): Negative ETR.
• Catalyst Watch/STV: Short-term price movement expectations based on specific catalysts, not affecting fundamental ratings.

Disclosure & Conflicts of Interest

• Citi Research analysts may have conflicts of interest due to the Firm's business relationships with Herbalife Ltd.
• The report is for institutional clients only in Israel and may not be available to retail clients.
• Citi Research may have investment banking relationships with Herbalife Ltd, which may influence recommendations.
• Analyst compensation is not directly tied to specific recommendations, but may be influenced by the Firm's profitability and corporate access events.

Additional Information

• The report includes Catalyst Watch and Short-Term View (STV) ratings.
• Citi Research has implemented policies to manage conflicts of interest.
• The report is subject to FINRA and other regulatory disclosures.
• Historical data and price performance are referenced, with the caveat that past performance does not guarantee future results.

Conclusion

The report indicates that Herbalife Ltd is in the early stages of a topline recovery, with sustained improvement in underlying business trends. Despite challenges such as FX, launch costs, and regulatory risks, the company is expected to benefit from cost savings programs and deleveraging. The investment rating is Buy, based on positive ETR expectations and improving fundamentals, though risks remain that could affect the target price.