2024-01-08-Activate-2024年科技和媒体展望报告_204页_18mb

Activate Technology & Media Outlook 2024: Key Summary

1. Consumer Time and Attention

• The average American spends nearly 13 hours daily on technology and media, projected to increase by 12 minutes by 2027.
• Super Users (24% of adults, ~72 hrs/week) dominate time and spend, driving growth across all sectors.

2. Generative AI

• Massive growth expected: U.S. adults using generative AI will rise from 10M (2023) to 90M by 2027.
• Reshapes industries (e.g., search, content creation), lowers barriers for creators, and enables personalized experiences.
• Open-source models democratize AI, allowing smaller players to compete.

3. eCommerce

• Global eCommerce revenues will reach ~$10T by 2027, growing twice as fast as physical retail.
• Retail media networks (e.g., Kroger’s marketplace) will drive $100B in ad revenue by 2027.
• TikTok emerges as a top inspiration/source for purchases among younger consumers.

4. B2B and Enterprise Software

• B2B tech spend will reach $3.5T by 2027, fueled by AI-driven productivity tools.
• Cloud-native applications (e.g., SaaS) lead growth, with enterprises prioritizing value over innovation.

5. Gaming

• Video gaming is a widespread behavior (2.6B global gamers), with Super Gamers (24% U.S. gamers) as key targets.
• Revenue to reach $200B by 2027, driven by esports, mobile games, and social integration.

6. Metaverse

• User growth to surpass 600M by 2026, accelerated by generative AI (e.g., virtual humans, UGC).
• Requires interoperability strategies and Metaverse-specific business units.

7. Spatial Computing

• All screens will become spatial-enabled devices by 2027, moving beyond headsets.
• Apple’s entry into AR/VR catalyzes ecosystem growth for developers.

8. Social Video

• TikTok dominates social video time (48% of total), with viewership and monetization expected to surge.
• Ad-supported tiers expand revenue, but churn risks remain.

9. Video

• Streaming continues to grow at the expense of traditional TV, but margins face pressure amid ad loads and pricing hikes.
• Ad-supported tiers generate $60B+ revenue, with innovation in bundling and re-bundling.

10. Music and Podcasts

• Recorded music revenues reach $93B by 2027, with AI transforming discovery and creation.
• Podcasts are mainstream, with video podcasts gaining traction and evolving monetization strategies.

11. Sports Betting

• Legal in 35 states (60% U.S. adults live in legal states), with total wagers projected at $186B by 2027.
• Digital transformation (odds, user experience) drives efficiency amid rising competition.

12. Live Entertainment

• Global spending on live events exceeds $110B, with demand resilient and driven by socialization and celebrations.
• Innovations (e.g., digital signage, stadium connectivity) enhance fan experiences and monetization.

13. Technology and Media Revenues

• Global internet/media revenues will grow ~$400B (3.8% CAGR) by 2027, driven by advertising and subscriptions.
• Subscriptions account for ~83% of consumer revenue growth, incentivizing bundled offerings.

Key Takeaway: The industry is shifting toward AI-driven personalization, multi-channel engagement, and immersive experiences, with significant opportunities for Super Users and enterprises adopting strategic technologies.