2023-06-05-腾景数研-制造业_生产端景气度依然较弱_15页_1mb

Summary of Economic Conditions from Tan Jing Macro Industry Weekly Report

Demand and Supply Overview
Based on the weekly report from Tan Jing Macro Research, the economic landscape in June 2023 shows a continued weakening in manufacturing and production sectors. Overall, there is a decline in demand across consumption, investment, and export domains, as well as in supply. Key indicators highlight slowing economic recovery, with slight variations by region and industry.

Demand Side

• Consumption: Domestic consumption remains weak, with movie ticket sales seeing a small increase but overall subdued compared to pre-pandemic levels. Subways show a 67.5% year-on-year growth but a household decline in recent weeks, indicating fading momentum post-lockdown normalization.
• Investment: Investment is facing downward pressure, notably in real estate and industrial sectors. Real estate sales are up in secondary cities, but overall investment lacks broad-based strength.
• Exports: Export activity is sluggish, with little indication of rapid improvement, contributing to overall export fragility.

Supply Side

• Industrial Output: Industrial production is weak, as evidenced by high-furnace operation rates in steel production being stable but reduced yields and profits. For example, steel output might increase slightly but sales remain flat, affecting overall sector viability.
• Services: Services are showing slight recovery, especially in urban areas, yet the pace is cautious, with differentiation between cities.

Price Indicators

• CPI and Related: Consumer prices are trending downward, with inflation slowing but potential stabilization by July. Food components are stable post-low points.
• PPI and Core Inflation: Producer prices remain stable, suggesting no significant immediate inflationary pressures, though global factors like oil might influence future trends.

Financial Sector

• Money Supply: M2 shows upward movement, likely due to increased liquidity, but social financing is decreasing, indicating tighter credit conditions or reduced lending.
• Financial Markets: Loan rates are stable, while exchange rates are decreasing, potentially affecting currency stability.

Additional Context
Globally, there are risks and updates, such as ongoing adjustments in oil production and central bank policies, which could impact local economic scenarios. The report emphasizes reliance on AI-driven forecasts for real-time data analysis.