20230820-中财期货-纸浆投资策略周报_需求延续清淡_纸浆承压运行_12页_691kb

Market Overview: Demand for paper pulp remains清淡, with limited price support despite domestic原纸 price stability. Supply is generally normal, but increased进口阔叶浆 and high港口库存 (e.g., Qingdao Port at 1888万吨, +39万吨) contribute to downward pressure on prices.

Price Trends: Pulp prices exhibit震荡, with needle pulp averaging 5404元/吨 (+26%环比), while阔叶浆 at 4429元/吨 (+34%) shows stronger gains due to tight market. Overall, prices are supported weakly, with期货走弱 and基差 divergence indicating mixed sentiment.

Supply and Imports: Imports expected at 300万吨 (high), increasing competition, while exports stabilize at ~15万吨. Production remains steady, but downstream需求 limited, reducing实际 pull.

Inventory Dynamics: Ports are accumulating inventory, shifting from de-stocking to slow buildup, with medium-high stock levels pressuring现货 markets as trading interest declines.

End Market Demand: Downstream sectors like white卡纸 show low profit and slow demand, while生活用纸 and双胶纸 remain stable but unprofitable in some segments, indicating constrained consumption.