20260826-招银国际-2Q26_results_Revenue_acceleration_on_solid_ARPPU_and_user_growth_5页_1mb
报告摘要
Kanzhun Limited (BZ US) Summary
Core Content
Kanzhun Limited (BZ US), also known as Boss Zhipin, reported its 2Q26 financial results, showing strong revenue growth and improved profitability. The company's total revenue increased by 14% YoY to RMB2.40bn, and non-GAAP net income rose by 9% YoY to RMB941mn, both in line with the Visible Alpha (VA) consensus. For 3Q26E, management expects total revenue to grow by 11-16% YoY, aligning with the VA forecast of RMB2.47bn.
Key Points
-
Revenue Growth:
- 2Q26: +14% YoY to RMB2.40bn
- 3Q26E: Expected to grow by 11-16% YoY to RMB2.41-2.50bn
- FY26E: Revenue forecast at RMB9,357mn
- FY27E: RMB10,317mn
- FY28E: RMB11,235mn
-
Profitability:
- Adjusted OPM improved by 1.9ppt YoY to 43.8% in 2Q26
- FY26E adjusted OPM is expected to increase by 2ppt YoY to 43%
- Adjusted net profit for FY26E is RMB3,959mn, with a forecasted growth in FY27E and FY28E
-
Shareholder Returns:
- The company announced dividends of US$230mn
- Share buybacks totaling over US$300mn have been completed YTD, representing approximately 7% of the current market cap
-
Target Price:
- Raised to US$23.00, based on 18x FY26E non-GAAP PE
- Previous target price was US$22.50
-
Valuation:
- Valuation based on 18x FY26E non-GAAP PE is at US$10.6bn
- The target PE multiple is higher than peers (16x PE)
Business Strategies
-
User Growth and Monetization:
- The company is focusing on increasing monetization in first-tier and some second-tier cities due to its currently low pricing
- Paid enterprise customers grew by 11% YoY to 7.2mn in 12 months ended Jun 2026
- Paying ratio improved for the fourth consecutive quarter
-
ARPPU and Revenue:
- Overall ARPPU increased by 7% YoY in 2Q26
- The company expects this to drive sustainable revenue growth
-
AI Integration:
- AI is being used to improve recommendation efficiency and user experience
- AI interviews and resume screening have received positive feedback from key account customers
- Daily average number of AI interviews exceeded 10k in 2Q26
- AI-facilitated closed-loop recruitment services generated c.RMB80mn in revenue in 2Q26, up from c.RMB50mn in 1Q26
Financial Highlights
| Metric | FY24A | FY25A | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 7,356 | 8,268 | 9,357 | 10,317 | 11,235 |
| YoY growth (%) | 23.6 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 8.9 |
| Adjusted net profit (RMB mn) | 2,711 | 3,602 | 3,959 | 4,374 | 4,699 |
| EPS (Adjusted) (RMB) | 5.96 | 7.77 | 8.63 | 9.73 | 10.67 |
| P/S (x) | 6.8 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| P/E (x) | 32.5 | 19.0 | 10.6 | 13.3 | 11.7 |
Shareholding and Performance
-
Shareholding Structure:
- Zhao Peng: 13.5%
- Tencent: 7.7%
-
Share Performance:
- 1-mth: +5.6%
- 3-mth: +22.4%
- 6-mth: -0.2%
-
Stock Data:
- Market Cap: US$7,472.5mn
- 52w High/Low: US$24.91 / US$12.65
Business Forecasts and Valuation
-
Forecast Revision:
- Revenue for FY26E is RMB9,357mn, with a minimal change of 0.0% compared to previous estimates
- Gross profit is expected to be RMB8,074mn for FY26E
- Adj. operating profit for FY26E is RMB4,018mn
-
Valuation:
- Target valuation: US$10.6bn (US$23.0 per ADS)
- The P/S ratio is expected to decline from 6.8 to 4.5 by FY28E
- The P/E ratio is projected to be 10.6x for FY26E
Risks
- Macro Uncertainty: Affects demand in the recruitment sector
- Intensifying Competition: In the online recruitment market
- AI Disruption: May impact the sector
Analyst Ratings
- BUY: Indicates potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months
- HOLD: Indicates potential return of +15% to -10% over the next 12 months
- SELL: Indicates potential loss of over 10% over the next 12 months
Analyst Certification
- The primary research analyst certifies that the views expressed are their personal views
- No part of the analyst's compensation is directly or indirectly related to the views expressed
- The analyst has not traded in the stock covered within 30 calendar days prior to the report's issue
Important Disclosures
- This report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities
- CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice
- Past performance does not indicate future performance
- The value of investments may fluctuate and is not guaranteed
- The report is for the use of intended recipients only
Legal and Regulatory Information
- The report is distributed to specific categories of investors as per local regulations
- CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer in the U.S. and may not be subject to U.S. rules
- The report may be distributed in the U.S. only to "major U.S. institutional investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6
Conclusion
Kanzhun Limited is showing strong revenue and profit growth, supported by AI integration and a focus on monetization in key cities. The company's improved financial metrics and strategic initiatives suggest a positive outlook, with a target price of US$23.00 and a BUY rating. However, macroeconomic uncertainty and competition remain key risks to consider.
试读结束,高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载