2025-05-18-Jefferies-杰富瑞宏观周报——情绪套利；最新经济展望sede_vacante_13页_272kb

Global Equity Strategy Summary - May 17, 2025

Report Overview: This report from Jefferies provides insights from various analysts on the updated economic outlook and equity strategy, with a focus on US-China trade dynamics, market sentiment, and fiscal policies. Key themes include reduced recession risks, Federal Reserve rate expectations, and equity performance factors.

• Economic Outlook: The US economy is expected to rebound in Q2 GDP with strong growth, but face subdued growth in the second half of 2025. The Fed is projected to cut rates three times starting in September, responding to easing inflation and reduced recession risks from trade deal de-escalation. Labor markets may weaken later in the year.

• Trade and Geopolitical Factors: Recent tariff reductions between the US and China have lowered recession and growth risks, with a base case for 10% average tariffs across the board. China is prioritizing manufacturing and national security items, potentially benefiting from increased foreign investment. Trade deals are positioning equities as bullish due to tax cuts, but risks remain with proposed tariffs and fiscal deficits.

• Equity Market Views: Equities are seen as strong due to the Trump agenda's tax cuts and potential buybacks, though concerns exist over AI capital expenditure leading to capital misallocation. Market sentiment is divided with opportunities for price appreciation amid neutral-to-positive positioning, but the path of least resistance is higher risky assets before hard data weakens. Analysts recommend focus on growth sectors with favorable positioning.

• Currency Dynamics: The USD has rallied amid trade optimism but remains in a downtrend. If USD/CNY weakens significantly, it could trigger global currency realignments, affecting markets in Asia and emerging economies. Attention on the 10-year Treasury yield and real rates suggests opportunities in rate duration.

• Key Risks and Headwinds: Persistent growth uncertainties from fiscal policy debates, potential for another recession if tariffs outweigh benefits, and upside from inflation via "last mile" productivity improvements. Markets are navigating a complex interplay of trade, tax, and monetary factors.

Takeaways: Trade moderation has enhanced growth prospects, supporting equities through Fed policy shifts and fiscal lifts. However, execution risks and geopolitical tensions could hinder sustained gains.