20260311-招银国际-蔚来-SW-09866.HK-Challenges_remain_despite_4Q25_beat_on_opex_5页_901kb

NIO Inc. Summary

Core Content

NIO Inc. (NIO US/9866 HK) reported a 4Q25 earnings beat, driven by lower-than-expected R&D and SG&A expenses, despite a 0.2% revenue shortfall compared to prior projections. The company achieved its first-ever net profit of RMB122mn in 4Q25, indicating a shift in financial performance. However, analysts maintain a HOLD rating, citing ongoing challenges in sustaining these cost reductions and profitability in FY26E.

Main Points

Financial Performance in 4Q25

• Revenue: RMB34.7bn, up 76% YoY.
• Gross Margin (GPM): 17.5%, up 3.7ppts QoQ and 0.1ppt above expectations.
• Non-GAAP Operating Profit: RMB1.25bn, exceeding the previous profit alert of RMB0.8-1.2bn.
• Net Profit: RMB122mn, a first-time positive result.
• R&D and SG&A Expenses: Below estimates by RMB0.5bn and RMB1.6bn respectively, contributing to the earnings beat.

FY26E Projections and Concerns

• Sales Volume Forecast: Revised down by 10,000 units to 460,000 units, still aligned with management guidance of 40-50% growth.
• GPM Projection: 16.3%, with a sales assumption of 460,000 units and 60% of units being ES9, ES8, ES7, L90, and L80.
• Net Loss Projection: RMB3.8bn for FY26E.
• R&D and SG&A Expenses: Projected at RMB9.9bn and RMB15.5bn, respectively, with SG&A at 12% of revenue.
• Concerns: The success of the Onvo L90 may not be sustainable, and the ES8 could follow a similar pattern, affecting GPM. The AI race and rising component costs are also seen as pressure points.

Earnings and Valuation

• Price Targets: Revised ADR price to US$6.00 (HK$47.00 for H-shares), down from prior US$6.40 (HK$50.00).
• P/S Ratio: 0.8x (based on revised FY26E revenue).
• Key Risks: Sales volume and margin deviations, sector re-rating or de-rating.

Key Financial Metrics

Revenue Growth

• FY23A: 55,618 RMB mn
• FY24A: 65,732 RMB mn (+18.2% YoY)
• FY25A: 87,488 RMB mn (+33.1% YoY)
• FY26E: 128,659 RMB mn (+47.1% YoY)
• FY27E: 147,282 RMB mn (+14.5% YoY)

Gross Margin

• FY23A: 9.9%
• FY24A: 13.6%
• FY25A: 16.1%
• FY26E: 16.1%
• FY27E: 15.0%

Operating Profit

• FY23A: -21,874.1 RMB mn
• FY24A: -21,874.1 RMB mn
• FY25A: -14,041.2 RMB mn
• FY26E: -3,811.1 RMB mn
• FY27E: -2,734.5 RMB mn

Net Profit

• FY23A: -21,147.0 RMB mn
• FY24A: -22,658.0 RMB mn
• FY25A: -15,571.0 RMB mn
• FY26E: -3,828.5 RMB mn
• FY27E: -2,228.3 RMB mn

Adjusted Net Profit

• FY23A: -18,474.8 RMB mn
• FY24A: -20,381.7 RMB mn
• FY25A: -12,940.8 RMB mn
• FY26E: -1,725.9 RMB mn
• FY27E: -74.5 RMB mn

EPS (Reported)

• FY23A: -1,102.77 RMB cents
• FY24A: -689.02 RMB cents
• FY25A: -150.84 RMB cents
• FY26E: -83.83 RMB cents

P/S Ratio

• FY23A: 1.5x
• FY24A: 1.1x
• FY25A: 0.8x
• FY26E: 0.8x
• FY27E: 0.7x

P/B Ratio

• FY23A: 6.0x
• FY24A: 7.1x
• FY25A: 6.2x
• FY26E: 6.5x

Stock Performance

• 1-Month Return: NIO US: +12.4%, HK: -3.9%
• 3-Month Return: NIO US: +11.1%, HK: -2.8%
• 6-Month Return: NIO US: -6.1%, HK: -16.9%

Stock Data

• Market Cap: NIO US: 14,299.92 mn, HK: 95,684 mn
• Avg 3-Month Turnover: NIO US: 198.63 mn, HK: 221.99 mn
• 52-Week High/Low: NIO US: 7.89 / 3.14, HK: 61.2 / 24.5
• Issued Shares: 2,508.757 mn

Analysts and Ratings

• Analysts: Ji SHI, Wenjing DOU, and Austin Liang
• CMBIGM Ratings:
  • BUY: Potential return of over 15% over 12 months
  • HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over 12 months
  • SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over 12 months
  • OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
  • MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
  • UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Disclosures

• The research analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
• No trading was done within 30 days prior to the report, and no trading is planned within 3 business days after.
• The analyst does not have any financial interests in the companies covered.
• The report is for informational purposes only and not tailored to individual investors.

Legal and Regulatory Information

• UK: Report is provided only to certain investors as defined by the Financial Services and Markets Act.
• US: CMBIGM is not a registered broker-dealer; report is for major US institutional investors.
• Singapore: Report is distributed by CMBISG, an Exempt Financial Adviser, and is subject to Singapore regulations.

Summary of Key Factors Affecting NIO

• Sustainability of R&D and SG&A Expenses: Analysts are concerned about the ability to sustain the cost reductions seen in 4Q25.
• Competition: The highly competitive Chinese auto market poses a challenge for NIO's profitability.
• AI Race: The company's investment in AI may affect its operating costs and profitability.
• Component Price Volatility: This could impact margins and profitability in FY26E.
• Sales Performance: The success of the Onvo L90 may not be replicable for future models.
• Net Profit: NIO's first net profit in 4Q25 highlights progress, but challenges remain for FY26E.