战略与国际研究中心-Hemisphere-Highlights,-Volume-VIII,-Issue-1_6页_151kb

HEMISPHERE HIGHLIGHTS Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of political and social developments across the Americas in early 2009, focusing on key events in North America, Central America, the Caribbean, and South America. It highlights the shifting foreign policy priorities of the United States under President Obama, the political landscape in various countries, and the ongoing efforts to address historical issues such as human rights violations and crime.

Main Points

United States and Latin America

• Energy Partnership: Secretary of State Hillary Clinton emphasized the importance of an "energy partnership of the Americas" during her confirmation hearing, signaling a shift in U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America beyond traditional antidrug and free-trade agendas.
• Western Hemisphere Energy Compact: Senators Richard Lugar and Chris Dodd are expected to reintroduce a $59 million compact ahead of the April 17, 2009, Summit of the Americas. This initiative aims to foster economic growth, investment, and cooperation in alternative energy.
• Climate Change and Regional Relations: The energy agenda is seen as a potential tool to demonstrate U.S. commitment to climate change and to build more constructive relationships with Latin American nations.

Canada

• Budget Approval: The Liberal opposition party offered conditional support to the Conservative government's 2009 federal budget, which includes a $40 billion stimulus package and a return to deficit spending.
• Political Tensions: Despite the budget support, political tensions remain high. The Liberals have positioned the Conservatives as "on probation" and dependent on their support.
• Economic Impact: The budget is expected to boost economic activity by 1.9 percent in 2009, but concerns about economic stability and public opinion remain.

Mexico

• Constitutional Elections: The July 5, 2009, congressional elections are a significant event, with opposition parties aiming to gain momentum ahead of the 2012 presidential race.
• Economic and Security Challenges: Mexico's economic performance has slowed, with unemployment rising and remittances decreasing. Public security issues, particularly related to drug-related violence, are also a major concern.
• Campaign Regulations: The Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) has implemented stricter campaign donation scrutiny to prevent influence from criminal organizations.

El Salvador

• Political Shift: The FMLN, a former guerrilla group, became the largest political party in the country after the January 18, 2009, legislative and municipal elections.
• Presidential Election: The FMLN's candidate, Mauricio Funes, is expected to be favored over the Arena candidate, Rodrigo Avila, in the March 15, 2009, presidential election.
• Party Evolution: The FMLN is attempting to shift from a radical image to a more moderate, pragmatic political force, with Funes representing a "new left" and Sanchez Cerén as the hard-left faction.

St. Kitts and Nevis

• Reintroduction of Capital Punishment: The country reintroduced hanging as a form of capital punishment, with the first execution since 2000 occurring on December 19, 2008.
• Crime and Tourism: The move is linked to concerns over rising violent crime and the need to maintain the Caribbean's reputation as a safe tourist destination.
• Regional Trends: Other Caribbean nations are also considering capital punishment due to increasing narcotics and gang-related crime.

Bolivia

• New Constitution: A national referendum on January 25 approved a new constitution, which is seen as a reflection of President Evo Morales' political vision.
• Regional and Ethnic Representation: The constitution expands indigenous political influence and redefines the role of the national state, with support in rural and indigenous areas.
• Transition Challenges: The implementation of the new constitution will involve a complex transition process, with potential conflicts between the government and opposition.

Paraguay

• Supreme Court Reforms: The new supreme court is the first not dominated by the Colorado Party in 61 years, following the resignation of Wildo Rienzi.
• Judicial Independence: President Fernando Lugo aims to establish a more independent and transparent judiciary, ending the long-standing "cuoteo politico" system.
• Political Implications: The reform process may test the government's ability to overcome political resistance and ensure judicial sovereignty.

Argentina

• Mid-Term Elections: Argentina will hold mid-term congressional elections in October, which will be a test for potential presidential candidates, including Nestor Kirchner.
• Prosecuting the Dirty War: The government continues to prosecute human rights violations from the 1970s "Dirty War," including the case of ex-naval officer Randolph Agusti Scacchi.
• Legal Reforms: The overturning of amnesty laws in 2005 has enabled the prosecution of former regime officials, though many cases remain unresolved.

Key Information

• The energy partnership of the Americas is a central theme in U.S. foreign policy toward Latin America.
• Capital punishment is being reintroduced in St. Kitts and Nevis as a response to rising violent crime.
• The FMLN's rise in El Salvador indicates a shift in political dynamics and voter preferences.
• Bolivia's new constitution is a significant step in its political and social transformation.
• Paraguay's supreme court reforms aim to reduce political influence and increase judicial independence.
• Argentina's ongoing efforts to prosecute human rights violations from the Dirty War are a key development in its democratic process.

Contributing Authors

• Peter DeShazo (Director, Americas Program)
• Katherine E. Bliss (Deputy Director and Senior Fellow)
• Johanna Mendelson Forman (Senior Associate)
• Carlos M. Regúnaga (Director, Argentina Office)
• Jessica Horwitz, Matt Potter, Thomas Cook, John Mulqueen, and Leslie Taylor (Intern-Scholars)

Publisher

• Hemisphere Highlights is published monthly by the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
• CSIS is a nonpartisan, nonproprietary research institution focused on international policy issues.