爱立信-2020年6月移动报告（英文）-2020.7-36页_5mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary (June 2020)

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report (June 2020) provides an overview of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mobile network usage, consumer behavior, and 5G adoption. It highlights how the crisis has accelerated the need for resilient networks and innovative digital services.

Main Points

Impact of the Pandemic on Connectivity

• The pandemic has significantly changed consumer behavior, increasing reliance on digital services for work, education, and social interaction.
• Video calling has become a crucial communication tool, with 85% of consumers using it and 48% of seniors using it as one of the top three services.
• Fixed broadband usage increased by 2.5 hours per day, while mobile broadband usage increased by 1 hour per day.

Network Performance During the Crisis

• Despite increased traffic, networks generally performed well, with 74% of consumers reporting that their mobile broadband experience was the same or better than before.
• Service providers managed to maintain performance through capacity upgrades, load balancing, and traffic optimization.
• Consumers often confuse network performance issues with server congestion, especially for video conferencing and other high-demand apps.

5G Adoption and Growth

• 5G subscriptions are expected to grow rapidly, reaching 190 million by the end of 2020.
• Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) connections are forecast to grow threefold, reaching 160 million by 2025.
• 5G is seen as a key enabler for new applications such as remote healthcare, virtual reality (VR), and autonomous commerce.
• 64% of consumers believe it is very important for service providers to maintain network resilience and quality.
• In China and India, 5G adoption has been faster than previously expected, while in Europe and North America, growth has been slightly slower due to pandemic effects.

Consumer Expectations and Digital Behavior

• Consumers expect service providers to maintain network reliability and offer innovative services.
• 61% of parents and 48% of white-collar workers expect educational content packages and VR-based services, respectively.
• New digital behaviors are expected to persist even after the crisis, including remote work, virtual experiences, and contactless commerce.
• 6 in 10 consumers believe 5G coverage should be expanded faster to outperform fixed broadband.

Mobile Data Traffic Trends

• After a peak in traffic growth in 2018 and 2019, the growth rate has normalized.
• Data traffic increased due to remote work and entertainment, especially video conferencing and streaming.
• Mobile data traffic was unevenly distributed, with some cells experiencing significant increases.

Key Forecasts

5G Subscriptions

• 190 million 5G subscriptions by the end of 2020.
• 2.8 billion 5G subscriptions globally by the end of 2025, representing 30% of all mobile subscriptions.
• LTE will remain the dominant mobile access technology, peaking at 5.1 billion subscriptions in 2022 and declining to 4.4 billion by 2025.
• 88% of mobile subscriptions will be for mobile broadband by 2025.

Mobile Broadband Growth

• Global mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to increase from 8 billion in 2020 to 8.9 billion by 2025.
• Smartphone penetration is expected to rise from 5.5 billion in 2019 to 7.5 billion by 2025, representing 85% of all mobile subscriptions.

FWA Growth

• FWA connections are forecast to grow threefold, reaching 160 million by 2025.
• FWA is particularly important in markets with limited fixed broadband access, such as India, where 37% of consumers rely on mobile broadband for home connections.

Regional Outlook

Sub-Saharan Africa

• LTE accounted for 11% of subscriptions in 2019.
• By 2025, LTE will make up 30%, while HSPA will remain the dominant technology at 40%.
• 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 3% of total mobile subscriptions by 2025.

Middle East and North Africa

• LTE made up 23% of subscriptions in 2019.
• By 2025, 77% of subscriptions will be for mobile broadband.
• 5G subscriptions are expected to reach 80 million by 2025, or 10% of total mobile subscriptions.

Latin America

• LTE dominates with 51% of subscriptions in 2019 and is expected to reach 68% by 2025.
• WCDMA/HSPA will decline from 36% to 13%.
• 5G deployments are expected to begin in 2020, with Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico leading the way.

Key Contributions and Methodology

• The report is based on Ericsson Consumer & IndustryLab survey data from 11 countries: Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the US.
• 11,000 respondents were surveyed between April 8-24, 2020.
• The sample statistically represents at least 700 million smartphone users.
• The bucket model (data in GB per month) remains the core offering for most service providers, with unlimited data and service-based packages becoming more common.

Summary of Consumer Trends

• Video calling and instant messaging are the most important communication tools.
• Remote work, e-learning, and healthcare consultations have seen significant growth in usage.
• Gaming and AR/VR are also expected to grow, driven by the availability of 5G.
• Travel and booking, sports, and navigation apps have seen declines in usage.

Conclusion

The pandemic has accelerated the adoption of digital services, highlighting the critical role of connectivity in modern society. While 5G growth has been impacted in some regions, it remains a key driver of innovation and economic recovery. The report emphasizes the importance of resilient networks and new service offerings to meet evolving consumer needs.