20240204-国投证券-债基止盈压力仍位于高位_9页_1mb

The bond market sentiment remains high, with the "国投证券固收-债市微观交易温度计" at 74% and still in the overheated zone. Key issues include elevated bond fund redemption pressure, with a reading of 100%, up from the previous month. Multiple indicators, such as 30Y国债换手率 (7805%, overheat), 全市场换手率 (2149%, overheat), and 长期国债成交占比 (77.06%, overheat), reached 100%, signaling extreme activity. Institutional behaviors, like fund purchases of ultra-long bonds, are intense, with 100% density for weeks. Policy implications arise from the bond yield staying below the MLF rate, pushing the policy spread to 68%, close to overheating. Other overheating indicators include stock-bond spread and credit spread, both at 100%, while some sectors cooled, like institutional leverage falling back to the cold zone due to month-end liquidity factors. Overall, the market shows signs of excessive overcrowding and risk, with historical experience noted for uncertainty.