2025-06-11-Jefferies-OCI公司（OCI）_OCI向Methanex出售甲醇获得监管批准_7页_146kb

OCI has received regulatory approval for the sale of its Global Methanol Business to Methanex Corporation, which is expected to close on June 27. The proceeds will include $1.2 billion in cash and 9.9 million shares in Methanex. Following this, OCI plans to launch a tender offer for its $600 million in 6.7% notes within five business days, based on expected share price support from unlocking a potential $1 billion special dividend and a 30% buyback.

Currently, OCI is rated "Buy" with a price target of €8.00, implying a 6% upside from its current share price of €7.52. Analysts highlight that the divestment could generate €0.91 billion in planned dividends and a €0.21 billion buyback, potentially using available cash, Methanex stock (worth €350 million), and Nitrogen assets. This sequence could reduce remaining market capital to €680 million post-dividend and €480 million post all actions, leaving about €250 million in free float at a 26% discount from current valuation.

OCI's fair value is estimated at €0.90 billion, offering an 88% upside if the remaining assets are fully returned to shareholders through divestment or acquisition at a premium. The company's market cap increased to €1.8 billion after significant shareholder returns, including a €1.59 billion valuation before transactions.

Potential risks include volatility in nitrogen prices and input costs, while ongoing efforts aim to maximize capital returns and NAV realization.