2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kyrgyz_Republic_First_Review_Under_the_Three_85页_2mb

Summary of Kyrgyz Republic: First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

The document outlines the first review under the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement for the Kyrgyz Republic, conducted in the context of economic recovery and political stabilization following a deep political crisis in 2010. The review includes a staff report, staff statement, press release, and statement by the Executive Director. It also contains key policy discussions, program implementation status, and future outlook for the Kyrgyz economy.

Main Views and Key Information

Political Context

• A significant political crisis occurred in 2010, including a popular uprising and ethnic conflict, which severely impacted the economy.
• Presidential elections in October 2011 resulted in the incumbent prime minister (Atambaev) winning about 63% of the votes and being expected to serve a six-year term.
• Despite potential cabinet reshuffling, the staff expects no disruptions in the implementation of the ECF program due to the president-elect’s involvement in negotiating the arrangement.

Economic Developments and Program Implementation

• The Kyrgyz economy rebounded strongly, recording 8.7% GDP growth in the first nine months of 2011.
• Inflation declined sharply from over 20% in July 2011 to 9.5% in October 2011, projected at 7.5% by end-2011.
• Fiscal performance was robust, with tax revenue increasing by 30% compared to the same period in 2010, and nonpriority spending moderated due to uncertainty and absorptive capacity constraints.
• Fiscal deficits were better than programmed, with Som -0.2 billion at end-June 2011 and Som -4.0 billion at end-September 2011.
• External factors such as strong growth in Russia and Kazakhstan and high gold prices contributed to remittance inflows and gold exports increasing by 33% and 74%, respectively.
• The Kyrgyz som appreciated by over 6% against the U.S. dollar due to these factors, but appreciation pressures subsided due to seasonal effects and higher wages.

Medium-Term Outlook and Risks

• The Kyrgyz economy is projected to grow at 5.5% in 2012 and average about 5% in 2013-14, slightly slower than previous forecasts due to developments in partner economies.
• Domestic demand, fueled by remittances and private sector credit recovery, is expected to underpin growth.
• Structural reforms should help achieve more inclusive growth.
• Risks include:
  • Political instability if the new government fails to implement reforms.
  • Fiscal slippages and financial sector vulnerabilities.
  • Adverse terms of trade shocks, especially if oil prices fall or gold prices decline.

Global Uncertainties

• A global downturn could reduce remittances and exports, leading to gradual depreciation of the som, lower inflation, and improved competitiveness.
• However, the negative impact is expected to be manageable due to the country’s policy buffers.
• If gold prices drop significantly, the current account deficit could reach 6.5% of GDP, reserves could fall to 3.4 months of imports, and the overall deficit (excluding energy projects) could be 3.6% of GDP in 2016.

Program and Performance Criteria

ECF Arrangement

• A three-year ECF arrangement of SDR 66.6 million (75% of quota) was approved in June 2011.
• The first disbursement of SDR 9.514 million was made following the Board meeting.
• The authorities are requesting the second disbursement upon completion of this review.

Performance Criteria

• All quantitative performance criteria (QPC) and indicative targets for end-June and end-September 2011 were met.
• Structural benchmarks were also observed.
• The authorities are requesting modifications to the QPC:
  • An upward adjustment for the NBKR's net international reserves due to higher-than-expected foreign-exchange inflows.
  • An upward adjustment for the general government overall deficit to reflect the progress on the foreign-financed energy infrastructure project.
  • A downward adjustment for the ceiling on new nonconcessional external debt due to successful renegotiation of borrowing terms.

Policy Discussions

Fiscal Policy

• The revised 2011 budget and 2012 budget are considered appropriate.
• The overall deficit excluding energy projects is 0.8 percentage points of GDP lower than programmed for 2012.
• Pension increases (up to 85% of the minimum subsistence level) raised current expenditures by about 1% of GDP.
• Adjustments in other areas, including civil service reform, are expected to offset this increase.
• The bulk of the fiscal adjustment will be in current spending, while capital expenditures from domestic sources will be maintained.

Monetary Policy

• The tight monetary stance should be maintained until underlying inflation pressures subside.
• The NBKR will continue to intervene in the foreign exchange market only to smooth excessive volatility.
• Coordination between the ministry of finance and the NBKR is essential for monetary and fiscal policy alignment.

Financial Sector Policies

• Financial sector stability is improving, with credit and deposit growth at 16% and 17% respectively.
• Nonperforming loans have decreased from 17% in January 2011 to 11.4% in September 2011.
• Problem bank resolution is progressing, with Zalkar Bank found solvent and sales procedures initiated.
• SSC, the second-largest state-owned bank, has expanded its balance sheet by 225%, raising concerns about lending standards.
• The NBKR will monitor SSC and take supervisory actions as needed.
• Limiting capital injections for directed lending is important to constrain asset growth.

Other Structural Reforms

• The authorities are preparing a poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP) and have presented the first draft of the Medium-Term Development Program (MTDP).
• The Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) will be presented along with the second review in early May 2012.
• Discussions are ongoing regarding accession to the Belarus-Kazakhstan-Russian customs union, with concerns about potential job losses in the trade sector.
• The government is considering establishing a development bank to support underserved sectors, in line with program commitments.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic has made positive progress in economic recovery and program implementation, with fiscal and monetary policies contributing to stabilization and growth. However, risks remain, including political instability, external shocks, and financial sector vulnerabilities. The ECF-supported program is expected to continue improving the debt outlook and fiscal sustainability, with semi-annual monitoring and adjustments to performance criteria as needed. Strengthening public financial management (PFM), legal reforms, and financial sector oversight are critical for long-term stability and resilience.