美联储-联邦公开市场委员会运作目标的使用：85年和计数（英）-2023.6-28页_2mb

FOMC's Use of Operational Targets: 85 Years and Counting

This paper analyzes the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) operational targets over 85 years (1936-2021) using natural language processing on meeting minutes. While the federal funds rate is now the dominant operational target, historically the FOMC used various targets including reserves, Treasury yields, monetary aggregates, and external accounts.

Key findings:

• Evolution of Targets: Early periods featured more discussion of multiple targets (rate and quantity pairs) compared to the current rate-based focus.
• Regime Breaks: The 2007-2009 financial crisis marked a significant break from prior periods, and today's regime differs notably.
• Multiple Targets: The FOMC often discussed multiple targets simultaneously, with relationships ranging from substitution to complementarity.
• Regime Shifts: Changes occurred during economic recoveries or significant downturns, and less-discussed targets showed higher volatility.
• Historical Context: Early uncertainty (e.g., "feel of the market" era) and policy debates are captured in the language analysis, while modern transparency has shifted target audiences.

The analysis offers insights into the FOMC's evolving monetary policy implementation, highlighting both continuity and discontinuity in operational strategies over time.