20240612-IMF-Bulgaria_2024_Article_IV_Consultation-Press_Release_Staff_Report_and_Statement_by_the_Executive_Director_for_Bulgaria_55页_1mb

报告摘要

Bulgaria's economy demonstrated resilience through successive shocks, achieving a soft landing with 1.8% growth in 2023.
High inflation (8.6% in 2023) remains a key challenge for euro adoption; inflation is projected to decline to 2.7% by 2025.
Growth is expected to rebound in 2024 driven by exports and private investment, supported by EU funds.
Public debt (22% of GDP) is one of the lowest in the EU but fiscal risks remain elevated due to contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises.

Achieve a neutral fiscal stance in 2024 to balance growth support with disinflation.
Implement revenue reforms to increase tax collection, reduce informality, and broaden the tax base.
Prioritize pension system reforms to ensure sustainability while maintaining adequacy.
Address inefficiencies in public spending and improve fiscal transparency through better financial management.

Deepen structural reforms to boost productivity, labor force participation, and private investment.
Accelerate reforms in state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to enhance efficiency and reduce fiscal risks.
Invest in human capital, digital infrastructure, and green energy transition to support long-term growth.
Strengthen governance and anti-corruption measures, particularly in public procurement and judiciary.

Maintain robust banking system capitalization (e.g., 21.6% capital adequacy ratio).
Reinforce macroprudential frameworks to address risks from rapidly growing real estate credit.
Improve bank profitability and lending efficiency while maintaining liquidity buffers.

Continue pursuing timely eurozone membership by addressing inflation convergence and policy coordination.
Leverage EU funds for investment in infrastructure, digitalization, and green transition.
Ensure swift implementation of judicial and anti-corruption reforms to maintain EU funding access.

Improve statistical reliability by addressing data gaps and reducing large revisions.
Enhance surveillance by providing timely fiscal and external sector data aligned with IMF standards.

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