国际能源署-地热能源的未来（英）-2024-129页_8mb

The Future of Geothermal Energy Summary

Geothermal energy represents a vast, untapped potential for electricity generation, heating, and cooling. While it has been utilized for over a century, its global deployment remains limited, accounting for less than 1% of total energy consumption. However, technological advancements, particularly in drilling and reservoir stimulation, are enabling access to deeper, higher-temperature resources, potentially boosting its role in decarbonization efforts.

Conventional Geothermal: Today’s applications focus on electricity and direct heat uses, with the U.S., Indonesia, and the Philippines leading. Challenges include high upfront costs, permitting delays (up to a decade), and environmental concerns like induced seismicity. Policy support and innovation could unlock up to 15% of electricity growth by 2050.

Next-Generation Technologies: Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and Closed-Loop systems (CLGS) allow energy extraction from locations without natural reservoirs. Breakthroughs like multistage drilling and improved stimulation could reduce costs by up to 80% by 2035, making geothermal competitive with solar and wind. The global technical potential for electricity generation exceeds all other renewables, reaching 55 times current capacity.

Industry Collaboration: The oil and gas sector’s expertise in drilling, resource assessment, and project management can significantly lower geothermal costs. Cross-industry transfers and partnerships could reduce costs by up to 80%, supporting jobs and economic growth.

Market Potential: China, the U.S., and India represent three-quarters of global opportunities. By 2050, next-generation geothermal could supply 8% of global electricity and support widespread heating and cooling. Investment needs reach $2.5 trillion, with peak annual spending of $200 billion by 2035.

Policy Recommendations: Governments must elevate geothermal in energy policies, simplify permitting, enforce environmental safeguards, and invest in risk mitigation. Financial incentives (grants, tax credits) and long-term contracts should address predevelopment risks.

Geothermal energy offers a stable, dispatchable, and low-emission power source, crucial for integrating variable renewables. With sustained innovation and policy support, it could supply over 800 GW by 2050, contributing significantly to global decarbonization.