2017年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Senegal_Staff_Report_for_the_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Third_Review_Under_the_Policy_Support_Instrument_98页_2mb

Senegal: Article IV Consultation and Third Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI)

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) for Senegal and concluded the 2016 Article IV Consultation. The review was conducted on a lapse-of-time basis, indicating that the program's progress was satisfactory. The Staff Report highlights Senegal's macroeconomic stability, with growth exceeding 6% in 2016, low inflation, and a declining fiscal deficit. The current account deficit also narrowed, supported by lower oil prices and improved export performance.

The Program Support Instrument (PSI) is an IMF tool that provides policy advice and monitoring without financial assistance. Senegal's economic performance under the PSI program has met most of the end-June 2016 assessment criteria and indicative targets, with only a minor shortfall in tax revenue due to lower-than-expected customs revenue. Of the five structural benchmarks (SBs) set for the period from June to October 2016, three were met, one was delayed, and one was postponed.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Performance and Outlook

• Growth: Expected to remain above 6% in 2016, driven by agriculture, natural resources, services, and PSE projects. Medium-term growth could exceed 7% if reforms to support SMEs and FDI are implemented.
• Inflation: Remains low, with annual average consumer prices at 1.8% in 2016.
• Fiscal Deficit: Declined from 5.5% of GDP in 2013 to an expected 4.2% in 2016.
• Current Account Deficit: Narrowed to 6.5% of GDP in 2016, due to improved exports and lower oil prices.
• Debt Levels: Rising, but Senegal remains at low risk of debt distress. Continued growth and fiscal consolidation are essential to maintain this stability.

Policy Discussions

• Fiscal Policy: Consolidation is on track to meet the WAEMU target of 3% of GDP. Efforts to increase revenue and rationalize public consumption are key, especially in controlling the wage bill and improving tax collection.
• Competitiveness: Enhancing the private sector's competitiveness is critical for sustained growth. This includes improving tax transparency, lowering electricity costs, and boosting service distribution.
• Private Sector Development: The government is working to create a conducive environment for SMEs and FDI, including through the reorganization of the Special Economic Zones (SEZs). The SEZs should transition from tax holidays to a transparent, rules-based tax regime.
• Financial Sector: Financial indicators are improving, but regional supervision and domestic reforms are needed to reduce non-performing loans and improve credit availability.

Structural Reforms

• Reforms are necessary to unlock private investment and improve the business climate.
• Key areas include:
  • Strengthening fiscal institutions.
  • Enhancing public investment quality.
  • Improving the electricity sector through diversification, cost reduction, and better distribution.
  • Facilitating credit access for SMEs.
  • Implementing a single treasury account and improving tax administration.
  • Adopting the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).

Peer Learning and South-South Collaboration

• The IMF has supported Senegal through peer learning, drawing on experiences from Cabo Verde, Mauritius, Morocco, and Seychelles.
• A "book sprint" in 2016 aimed to develop a policy roadmap for reform, focusing on fiscal efficiency, business climate improvement, and inclusive growth.
• Senegal and Mauritius have initiated collaboration to jointly manage SEZs and develop the tourism sector. Senegal will also assist Mauritius with cultural projects.

Outlook and Risks

• Domestic Risks: Entrenched rent seeking and patronage could hinder reform efforts and inclusive growth. Political economy reforms are needed to ensure that the PSE's growth momentum is sustained.
• External Risks: Possible increases in borrowing costs and slow growth in key partner countries could affect Senegal's economic stability.
• Security Risks: Regional instability may deter investment and impact exports.

Key Recommendations

• Continue fiscal consolidation and ensure transparency in public sector wage systems.
• Implement structural reforms to improve competitiveness and support SMEs and FDI.
• Strengthen the financial sector through better supervision and domestic reforms.
• Maintain a sustainable debt strategy and improve debt management.
• Use peer learning and South-South collaboration to guide reform implementation.

Conclusion

The IMF staff welcomed the progress made under the PSE and recommended the completion of the third PSI review. Continued implementation of reforms and alignment with development partners' priorities are essential for sustaining Senegal's growth trajectory and achieving its long-term goal of emerging market status by 2035.