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报告摘要

Climate Risk Country Profile: Timor-Leste

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive summary of climate risks and impacts in Timor-Leste, focusing on climate change, natural hazards, and their socio-economic and environmental implications. It is jointly developed by the World Bank Group (WBG) and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to support development practitioners in integrating climate resilience into national and sectoral planning.

Main Points

Country Profile

Location and Size: Timor-Leste is a small country with a population of approximately 1.3 million and a land area of 14,874 km².
Geography: It consists of the eastern half of Timor Island and the enclave of Oecussi, situated between 8°15S – 10°30S latitude and 125°50E – 127°30E longitude.
Climate: A tropical climate with a wet season from December to May and a dry season from June to November. Southern regions have a longer wet season (7–9 months).
Natural Hazards: Highly vulnerable to cyclones, floods, droughts, and landslides, exacerbated by limited infrastructure and social welfare.
Economy: Primarily agrarian, with 66% of the population reliant on agriculture. Major exports include coffee, sandalwood, and marble.
Poverty: As of 2014, 41.8% of the population lived below the poverty line, with significant inequality and vulnerability to climate-related disasters.

Climate Baseline

Temperature: Average monthly temperatures range from 24.1°C to 25.4°C, with June, July, and August being the coldest months.
Precipitation: Annual rainfall varies between 12–18 mm in dry months and 222–252 mm in wet months.
Seasonal Variability: Little variation in temperature, but significant inter-annual rainfall variability due to ENSO.
Historical Trends: Limited meteorological data exists, but warming trends are evident, with the capital Dili experiencing a 0.8°C increase since 1851.

Key Trends

Temperature

Temperatures are projected to rise significantly under RCP8.5, with an expected increase of 3.1°C by the 2090s.
The increase is less under RCP2.6, with an estimated 0.8°C rise.
Daily temperature extremes are more impactful on ecosystems, health, and productivity.

Precipitation

Precipitation trends show high uncertainty, but there is high confidence in an increase in extreme rainfall events.
Annual rainfall changes are not clearly defined, but models suggest a near-zero average change.
Sub-daily extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with rising temperatures.

Climate Futures

RCP2.6 (Low Emissions): Projected temperature increases of 0.8°C by the 2090s.
RCP8.5 (High Emissions): Projected temperature increases of 3.1°C by the 2090s.
Precipitation: While uncertain, extreme rainfall events are likely to increase. Some models predict a decrease in rainfall, but the median projection suggests little change.
Climate Models: The CMIP5 model ensemble shows a wide range of projections, particularly for rainfall, but temperature trends are more consistent.

Climate-Related Natural Hazards

Heatwaves: Expected to increase in frequency under all emissions pathways, posing a major threat to human health.
Droughts: Frequency is uncertain but could increase, necessitating disaster risk reduction efforts.
Floods and Landslides: High risk due to heavy rainfall and mountainous terrain, especially in the south.
Cyclones and Storm Surges: A major climate-related hazard, with Timor-Leste ranked 43rd in at-risk countries.

Climate Change Impacts

Natural Resources

Water Resources: Vulnerable to changes in rainfall and temperature, with potential impacts on water availability and quality.
Coastal Zone: At risk from rising sea levels, increased storm surges, and saltwater intrusion.
Biodiversity: Likely to be affected by changing climate conditions and extreme weather events.

Economic Sectors

Agriculture: 70% of families rely on farming, and climate change is expected to significantly affect food production due to altered rainfall patterns and increased temperatures.
Fisheries: Likely to be impacted by changes in ocean temperature and sea level rise, which could affect marine ecosystems and fish stocks.

Communities

Poverty and Inequality: High levels of poverty and vulnerability to climate-related disasters, especially among rural and marginalized populations.
Health: Increased heatwaves and extreme weather events are expected to have significant health impacts, including heat-related illnesses and waterborne diseases.

Policies and Programs

National Adaptation Policies and Strategies: Timor-Leste has submitted its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) and its Second National Communication to the UNFCCC.
ADB and WBG Commitments: Both institutions have prioritized climate change and disaster risk reduction as key operational goals.
Climate Risk Screening: The WBG's Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool is used to assess climate risks in development operations and national planning.
Climate Resilience: Emphasis on integrating climate resilience into development planning, including disaster risk reduction, adaptation, and sustainable economic growth.

Climate Risk Index

ND-GAIN Index (2020): Timor-Leste is ranked 113th out of 182 countries, indicating high vulnerability and low readiness to improve resilience.
Inform Risk Index (2019): Ranked 66th out of 191 countries, highlighting high disaster risk due to limited coping capacity and social vulnerability.

Green, Inclusive and Resilient Recovery

The document emphasizes the importance of integrating climate resilience into recovery efforts post-COVID-19.
Recovery investments should focus on sustainable, inclusive, and resilient economic development.
This includes protecting biodiversity, enhancing human and social capital, and promoting decarbonization.

Data Sources and Methodology

Climate Data: Drawn from the World Bank Group's Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), using CMIP5 climate projections.
Model Ensemble: 16–32 General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to project climate changes, with the median and 10–90th percentiles presented.
Uncertainty: Climate projections are subject to uncertainty, particularly for rainfall, but temperature trends are more consistent and reliable.

Key Takeaways

Timor-Leste has a tropical climate heavily influenced by ENSO and the West Pacific Monsoon.
Climate change is expected to increase extreme weather events, particularly heatwaves and heavy rainfall.
The country is highly vulnerable to natural hazards and climate-related impacts, especially in agriculture and water resources.
High levels of poverty and inequality make the population particularly susceptible to climate shocks.
Both the WBG and ADB are committed to supporting climate resilience and adaptation in Timor-Leste through integrated policy and program approaches.

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