20240105-国泰期货-商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属_15页_761kb

Gold Analysis
The Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes reduced hawkishness on interest rates but constrained timing, leading to a slight pullback in gold prices and silver futures. Despite this, gold faces support from the increasing probability of easing, and the recommendation remains to buy on dips as long as the easing bias persists. Trend strength: -1; views are cautious short-term with room for consolidation.

Silver Analysis
Silver continues its downward trend, influenced by higher market sentiment from ADP and PMI data, resulting in price pullbacks. No significant demand revitalization is observed, keeping bears in control. Trend strength: -1; potential for further weakening until economic indicators show divergences.

Copper Analysis
Copper prices are supported by reduced inventory drawdown from China and a positive risk sentiment from US economic data, but concerns over potential rate hikes and Chinese demand weaken its upside. Trade is considered neutral, with tools like LME and specic positions impacting volatility. Trend strength: 0.

Aluminum and Oxidation
Aluminum prices are near support at levels around 19,000, with minor fluctuations and limited activity; oxidized aluminum has fallen due to regulatory tightening, impacting liquidity and fundamentals. High costs and supply tensions are main drivers, but regulatory efforts target speculative overflows. Trend strength: 0 for both; market is poised for a bearish oscillation until policy shifts.

Zinc and Lead
Zinc is under short-term pressure from economic outlook uncertainties, but mine inventory strains limit a bearish outcome; lead shows marginal improvement with better buying signals and reduced supply outages, pushing prices upward. Overall, risk balance favors short-term stability but caution on zinc. Trend strength: Zinc -1; Lead +1.

Tin and Industrial Silicon
Tin rebounded due to refiner demand and Myanmar supply fears, but fundamentals are contradictory; high stocks contrast with price rises, trading suggests risks are outweighed. Industrial silicon sees closing levels with small changes; supply-maintained but demand steady, requiring close inventory monitoring. Trend strengths: Tin -1; Industrial Silicon 0.

Overall market context includes the US and Europe exhibiting strong economic indicators that foster a risk-on reverie, however, this is shadowed by global inflationary thrust.