2018年-尼尔森欧洲_Q42016ConsumerConfidenceReport_23页_2mb

2016: A Year of Great Change and Consumer Confidence Trends

Core Content Overview

2016 was marked by significant political and economic changes globally, yet consumer confidence remained relatively stable or improved in most regions. The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions measured confidence across 63 countries, with the global index rising three points to 101 in the fourth quarter. Only the Africa/Middle East region saw a decline, dropping five points to 83.

Key Regional Trends

North America

• Global Index: Rose 12 points to 120, driven by the U.S.
• U.S. Confidence: Increased 13 points to 123, with strong optimism about personal finances, job market, and spending intentions.
• Canada: Confidence rose steadily to 98, with all indicators improving. Personal finances and job prospects were key factors.
• Top Concerns: Economy (30%), debt (20%), rising utility bills (19%), job security (17%), and health (17%).

Europe

• Global Index: Increased slightly to 81, with 25 of 34 markets showing improvement.
• Top Improvers: Netherlands (up 15 points), Spain (up 12 points), Switzerland (up 11 points), Sweden (up 9 points), and Norway (up 9 points).
• Declines: Latvia (down 8 points), Lithuania (down 5 points), Estonia (down 2 points), and Turkey (down 6 points).
• Top Concerns: Terrorism (21%), economy (21%), job security (19%), and health (18%).
• Terrorism Concerns: Declined across all European countries, with the largest drops in Switzerland, Belgium, and Italy.

Asia-Pacific

• Global Index: Rose three points to 111, with 10 of 14 markets showing improvement.
• Top Improvers: Philippines (up 13 points), India (up 3 points), New Zealand (up 2 points).
• Declines: Singapore (down 8 points), Malaysia (down 5 points).
• Top Concerns: Economy (32%), health (25%), work/life balance (23%), and job security (23%).

Latin America

• Global Index: Rose five points to 83, with three of seven markets showing improvement.
• Top Improvers: Brazil (up 11 points), Colombia (up 7 points), and Peru (up 5 points).
• Declines: Venezuela (down 3 points), with confidence at 57, the lowest since 2008.
• Top Concerns: Economy (35%), job security (24%), and crime (24%).

Key Findings

• Global Confidence: Improved in 44 of 63 markets, with 8 of the world's top 10 economies showing gains.
• Statistical Significance:
  • Global changes of 2 points or more are significant.
  • Regional changes of 3–4 points are considered significant.
  • Country-level changes of 7 points or more are statistically significant.
• Confidence Drivers:
  • In the U.S., optimism was fueled by economic growth, job market improvements, and post-election stability.
  • In Canada, steady improvements in all indicators contributed to rising confidence.
  • In Europe, economic stability and political changes (e.g., Brexit) influenced sentiment.
  • In Asia-Pacific, India and the Philippines saw the largest gains, while Singapore and Malaysia faced declines.
  • In Latin America, Brazil and Colombia showed progress, but Venezuela and Mexico remained flat or declined.

Consumer Confidence Indicators

• Personal Finances: Improved in most regions, with notable exceptions like Singapore and Malaysia.
• Job Prospects: Generally positive in North America and Europe, but mixed in Asia-Pacific and Latin America.
• Spending Intentions: Increased in the U.S. and Canada, but remained low in Latin America and South Korea.
• Economic Concerns: Dominated sentiment in most regions, particularly in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Survey Methodology

• The survey is based on online data from respondents with internet access in 63 countries.
• It measures perceptions of job prospects, personal finances, and immediate spending intentions.
• The methodology does not account for non-internet users, potentially skewing results in developing markets.
• Mobile-based surveys are used in three Sub-Saharan African countries (Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria), which are excluded from regional averages.

Conclusion

Despite global uncertainty, consumer confidence in most regions showed improvement or stability in 2016. The U.S. and Canada led the way with strong gains, while Europe and Asia-Pacific saw mixed results. Latin America had a modest increase, and Africa/Middle East remained the only region with a decline. The survey highlights the influence of local economic and political conditions on consumer sentiment, with wide variation across countries.