2006年-世界发展银行全球_Tajikistan_Policy_Note___Enhancing_the_Development_Impact_of_Remittances_66页_5mb

Summary of "Enhancing the Development Impact of Remittances" (June 2006)

Core Content

This document explores the role of remittances in Tajikistan's economy and evaluates policies to enhance their development impact. It provides an overview of migration trends, remittance flows, transfer methods, and the economic effects of remittances. The report also highlights international experiences and proposes policy recommendations tailored to Tajikistan's context.

Main Points

• Migration Trends:
  Since the transition to a market economy in 1991, Tajikistan has experienced high levels of out-migration. Migration was initially driven by war and conflict, but more recently, it is influenced by economic factors, particularly the labor demand in Russia and the low wage levels in Tajikistan. Most migrants are male, ethnic Tajiks, with an average age of 34 years, married, and have 5 dependents. They mainly migrate to Russia for work, where they are employed in construction, services, and manufacturing.

• Remittance Flows:
  Remittances have become a significant source of income for low-income families in Tajikistan, contributing to poverty reduction and economic growth. Official remittances reached 12% of GDP in 2004, making them the second-largest source of external financing after aluminum. However, the true size of remittance flows is believed to be higher than official estimates, with some suggesting up to 28% of GDP.

• Transfer Methods:
  The most common method of remittance transfer is the cash-to-cash system through commercial banks, which accounts for about 70% of all transfers. These transfers are relatively efficient in terms of cost and speed, with fees ranging from 1.5% to 5% of the amount sent. Informal transfers, often via personal couriers, friends, and acquaintances, make up about 30% of all remittances.

• Uses and Impact:
  Remittances are primarily used for basic household consumption, such as food, housing, and education. They also contribute to short-term economic growth and poverty alleviation by increasing domestic demand. However, their long-term impact on growth through investment in productive activities is limited due to low migrant income and an unfavorable business environment. Nonetheless, remittances are considered an investment in human capital.

• Challenges:
  Migrants and their families are not well integrated into the formal financial system, often lacking bank accounts at home and abroad. As a result, most remittances are transferred through informal or cash-based systems. The lack of reliable migration statistics further complicates the accurate measurement of remittance flows.

Key Information

Remittance Statistics

• Official Estimate (2004): About 421,000 Tajik migrants.
• Alternative Estimate: Up to 1.2 million Tajik migrants overseas.
• Remittances as a percentage of GDP (2004): 12% (official estimate), possibly up to 28% (alternative estimate).
• Remittance Use by Quintiles: Higher-income quintiles use remittances for investment, while lower-income quintiles use them for consumption.

Transfer Methods

• Formal Channels:
  • Money Transfer Systems (MTS): 70% of transfers, operated by commercial banks.
  • Account-to-account transfers: Limited due to high costs and lack of access.
• Informal Channels:
  • Personal couriers, friends, and acquaintances: 30% of transfers, less efficient and more costly.

International Experience

• Collective Remittances:
  • Home Town Associations (HTAs) in Latin America have successfully mobilized remittances for collective investment.
  • Three-for-One program in Mexico matches government funds with remittances to support development.
• Policy Instruments:
  • Microfinance Institutions (MFIs): Can be used to channel remittances into productive investment.
  • Financial Sector Reforms: Encourage cross-selling of financial products, improve competition, and enhance public information dissemination.

Policy Recommendations

Overarching Policies

• Encourage a Pro-Business Environment:

  • Maintain macroeconomic stability.
  • Simplify licensing and inspection regimes.

• Enhance the Role of Financial Intermediaries:

  • Encourage foreign banks to enter the Tajik market to modernize the financial system.
  • Promote cross-selling of financial products to migrants.
  • Foster healthy competition among commercial banks to reduce transfer fees.
  • Improve public information dissemination on financial services.
  • Integrate MFIs into remittance services to mobilize savings from un-banked rural migrants.

Bilateral Policies

• Diplomatic Engagement with Russia:
  • Simplify the process for obtaining resident permits.
  • Protect the rights of undocumented migrants.
  • Reduce costs for Russian employers hiring foreign workers.

Data and Statistics

• Improve Migrant and Remittance Statistics:
  • Enhance the quality and coverage of migration and remittance data.
  • Include informal remittances in balance of payments estimates.
  • Improve household budget surveys for better data accuracy.

Conclusion

• The development impact of remittances in Tajikistan is significant, but it is currently limited by the low level of investment and the poor business environment.
• Policies should be tailored to Tajikistan's specific needs, with a focus on improving the investment climate, enhancing financial intermediaries, and fostering bilateral cooperation with Russia.
• The integration of remittances into the formal financial system and their use for productive investment can yield long-term economic benefits.

Annexes and Supporting Data

• Annex I: Summary of migrant survey.
• Annex II: Estimation of remittance flows.
• Annex III: Transfer of remittances to Tajikistan.
• Annex IV: Money transfer systems in Tajikistan.
• Annex V: Microfinance institutions in Tajikistan.

References

• The report draws on the World Bank's ongoing studies and international experiences, including the "Enhancing Gains through International Labor Migration in Europe and Central Asia" and the 2005 Global Economic Prospects.

Authors and Contributors

• Task Team Leader: Jariya Hoffman
• Country Director: Annette Dixon
• Sector Director: Cheryl Gray
• Contributors: Bryce Ramsey-Quillin, Paul Jacobs, Carlo Segni, and others from the World Bank and international organizations.

This document serves as a comprehensive guide for policymakers in Tajikistan to enhance the developmental impact of remittances through targeted policy reforms and improved data collection.