20180103-广发证券_香港_-Market_Snapshot_6页_464kb

报告摘要

Market Snapshot Summary

Core Content

The document discusses the new policy introduced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) on December 29, 2017, which allows for a pilot scheme of fully tradable H shares. This policy aims to improve the overseas listing system by enabling more flexibility in the tradability of H shares, which are shares of Chinese companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEx). The policy is expected to have a significant impact on the Hong Kong market due to the large market capitalization of restricted H shares.

Main Points

Pilot Scheme: The CSRC announced a pilot program for fully tradable H shares, with a maximum of three companies participating initially.
Eligibility Criteria:
- Compliance with foreign investment access, state-owned asset management, national security, and industrial policies.
- Companies must belong to innovative and environmentally friendly industries, aligning with national development goals.
- Market capitalization of at least HK$1 billion.
- Good corporate governance and protection of shareholder rights.
Market Impact:
- Restricted H shares account for 67% of all issued shares among non-dual-listed H shares.
- As of November 2017, restricted dual-listed H shares represented 22% of the total HK market cap, while restricted non-dual-listed H shares accounted for 8%.
- The conversion of restricted H shares to fully tradable shares is expected to enhance alignment of interests and potentially lead to re-rating of stocks.

Key Information

Dual vs. Non-Dual Listed H Shares:
- 98 dual-listed H shares and 128 non-dual-listed H shares exist on the HK mainboard.
- Dual-listed companies have a lower chance of converting restricted shares due to higher valuations in the A-share market.
Potential Winners:
- Companies with strong alignment with national strategies such as One Belt One Road, green energy, and SOE reform are more likely to be selected.
- Notable candidates include:
  - China Huarong (2799 HK, Buy) and China Cinda (1359 HK, Accumulate) for distressed asset management.
  - ASMC (3355 HK, NR) for its semiconductor business.
  - China Longyuan (916 HK, NR), Huaneng Renewables (958 HK, NR), and Datang Renewables (1798 HK, NR) for green energy.
  - CMEC (1829 HK, NR) for its involvement in the One Belt One Road initiative.
  - Legend Holdings (3396 HK, NR) for its innovative consumption and services.
  - ZA Online (6060 HK, NR) for its innovative business model.
Market Reactions:
- The limited number of companies in the pilot scheme suggests a small increase in share supply, resulting in limited short-term negative impact.
- Improved corporate governance and alignment of interests could lead to better valuations and higher turnover in the Hong Kong market.
Financial Intermediates:
- Institutions like HKEx (388 HK, NR) and securities companies may benefit from increased market activity.

Risks

Uncertainties and difficulties in the execution of the policy may affect its outcomes.

Table of Non-Dual Listed H-Share Companies

Listing Date	Ticker	Company Name	Closing Price (HK$)	Issued Shares (m)	Market Cap (HK$ m)	Restricted Market Cap (HK$ m)
30/10/2015	2799.HK	China Huarong	3.62	39,070	144,169	50,775.41
28/9/2016	1658.HK	Postal Savings	4.11	81,031	328,984	251,426.81
6/11/2003	2328.HK	PICC Property	14.98	14,829	222,724	153,230.14
15/11/2002	728.HK	China Telecom	3.69	80,932	301,068	247,432.80
12/12/2013	1359.HK	China Cinda	2.83	38,165	109,151	69,609.32
23/9/2009	1099.HK	Sinopharm Group	33.7	2,767	93,528	53,053.38
7/12/2012	1339.HK	The People's Insurance	3.83	42,424	163,332	129,062.41
28/9/2017	6060.HK	ZhongAn Online	68.9	1,470	101,858	68,900.00
7/12/2005	489.HK	Dongfeng Motor	9.34	8,616	81,508	53,802.02
9/11/2015	3908.HK	China International Capital	16.28	3,985	64,798	40,129.44
20/12/2006	3898.HK	Zhuzhou CRRC Times	51.9	1,175	59,773	32,600.84
10/12/2014	1816.HK	CGN Power	2.11	45,449	96,351	72,341.61
1/2/2000	694.HK	Beijing Capital International Airport	11.8	4,331	51,018	28,928.01
23/3/2013	3396.HK	Legend Holdings	35.6	2,356	84,589	69,931.82
30/3/2016	2016.HK	China Zheshang Bank	4.34	17,960	78,484	61,474.78
10/12/2015	3996.HK	China Energy Engineering	1.35	2,605	7,605	6,288.87
17/12/2010	1798.HK	China Datang Corporation Renewable Power	0.91	7,274	6,765	4,343.09
16/12/1994	1133.HK	Guangdong Yueyun Transportation	5.06	800	4,055	2,999.81
26/11/2015	6865.HK	Flat Glass Group	1.66	1,800	2,988	2,241.00
23/2/2006	1292.HK	Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics	5.06	162	814	541.74
13/12/1994	1202.HK	Chengdu PUTIAN Telecommunications Cable	1.24	400	532	297.60
10/10/2017	6885.HK	Henan Jinma Energy	2.9	535	1,542	1,160.00
20/12/2013	1819.HK	Fuguiniao Co Ltd	3.88	1,337	5,189	473.36

Rating Definitions

Rating	Description
Buy	Expected to outperform the Hang Seng Index by more than 15%
Accumulate	Expected to outperform the Hang Seng Index by more than 5% but not more than 15%
Hold	Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%
Underperform	Expected to underperform the Hang Seng Index by more than 5%

Sector Ratings

Rating	Description
Positive	Expected to outperform the Hang Seng Index by more than 10%
Neutral	Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%
Cautious	Expected to underperform the Hang Seng Index by more than 10%

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information is subject to change without notice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for any loss resulting from the use of this report.
Readers should seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

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