20180823-招商证券_香港_-中国海外发展-00688.HK-Better_and_faster_7页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of COLI (688 HK) Company Report

Core Content

China Merchants Securities (HK) Co., Ltd. has issued a research report on COLI (688 HK), highlighting its strong performance and positive outlook. The report suggests that COLI is well-positioned for both growth and profitability, with a reiteration of the BUY rating.

Main Points

1H18 Results: COLI's first-half 2018 results exceeded market expectations, with contracted sales increasing from +10% in 2017 to +19% in 1H18. Rental income grew by 46% to HK$2bn. Gross margin and core margin expanded by 5.3ppts and 2.9ppts respectively, reaching 35.8% and 21.6%. Core profit rose by 14%, beating the market expectation of +10%. DPS increased by 14% to HK$0.4.
Growth Outlook: Management expects contracted sales to grow by +33% in 2H18E, with sales targets of HK$290bn for 2018 and HK$400bn for 2020. COLI has sufficient saleable resources (HK$500-600bn at Jun/Dec 18) and unrecognised sales of HK$179bn (gross margin ~30%), which support its growth and profitability.
Valuation: COLI is currently trading at a 31% discount to NAV and a 5.3x P/E ratio for 2019E. The dividend yield ranges from 4-6% for 2018-20E, making it an attractive investment.
Target Price: The target price (TP) for COLI is HK$32, based on a 10% discount to NAV. This TP remains unchanged from the previous one.

Key Financial Highlights

Metric	2016	2017	2018E	2019E	2020E
Revenue (HK$ mn)	158,717	163,972	215,247	268,441	323,421
Core Profit (HK$ mn)	31,371	34,260	41,995	51,434	59,725
Core EPS (RMB)	3.08	3.13	3.83	4.69	5.45
DPS (RMB)	0.77	0.80	1.07	1.31	1.53
P/E (x)	7.9	7.8	6.4	5.2	4.5
ROE (%)	15%	14%	15%	16%	17%

Valuation Ratios

Discount to NAV: 31%
P/E Ratio: 5.3x (2019E)
Dividend Yield: 4-6% (2018-20E)
Target Price (TP): HK$32 (10% discount to NAV)

Comparative Analysis (Peers)

Company	Share Price (HK$)	TP (HK$)	Rating	Mkt Cap (US$ m)	NAV (%)	Disc to Mkt NAV (%)	Disc to Upside (%)	P/E (x) 2017	P/E (x) 2018E	P/E (x) 2019E	P/B (x) 2018E	P/B (x) 2019E	Yield (%) 2018E	Yield (%) 2019E	Net Gearing
Vanke	25.95	36.0	Buy	36.9	40	35	44	39	8.7	6.9	1.6	1.3	5.2	5.7	6.3
Country Garden	12.06	13.0	Neutral	33.5	15	21	48	8	10.1	6.8	1.8	1.4	5.7	5.3	7.3
Evergrande	28.85	29.0	Buy	48.2	36	20	22	1	8.4	6.8	2.1	1.6	5.3	6.1	184
COLI	24.45	32.0	Buy	34.3	35	30	39	31	7.8	6.4	4.3	5.3	4.4	5.4	28
Sunac	25.35	36.0	Buy	14.3	45	44	59	5.3	21.4	8.3	1.8	1.4	3.0	4.9	5.1
Longfor	22.60	28.0	Buy	17.2	31	27	42	24	11.7	9.2	4.3	5.5	4.3	5.4	48
CR Land	27.80	-	NR	24.7	-	-	37	-	10.1	7.7	5.2	6.2	5.2	6.5	43
Shimao Prop	22.85	-	NR	9.8	-	-	58	-	9.6	7.3	5.4	6.8	5.4	6.1	61
Logan	10.00	-	NR	7.0	-	-	64	-	10.5	6.8	5.5	6.3	5.7	6.2	51
Guangzhou R&F	15.06	-	NR	6.2	-	-	60	-	5.5	4.1	5.2	6.6	5.2	6.1	189
Agile	11.82	-	NR	5.9	-	-	54	-	6.6	5.4	5.1	7.6	6.8	6.1	94
Jinmao	3.49	-	NR	5.2	-	-	58	-	8.3	6.8	5.3	6.3	6.1	6.1	69
CIFI	4.60	-	NR	4.6	-	-	57	-	6.9	5.5	4.2	7.7	7.5	7.7	49
Sino-Ocean	3.95	-	NR	3.9	-	-	66	-	6.4	5.1	4.3	7.6	7.5	6.1	66
Future Land	6.30	-	NR	7.0	-	-	60	-	10.0	6.4	4.7	7.5	7.5	5.0	117
KWG	8.87	-	NR	3.6	-	-	57	-	6.8	5.3	4.0	8.3	8.5	6.1	72
SZI	2.62	-	NR	2.8	-	-	58	-	4.4	6.9	5.1	8.4	8.5	6.1	22
Greentown	8.27	-	NR	2.3	-	-	58	-	9.3	7.2	6.5	9.6	10.5	6.1	59
Yuzhou	4.03	-	NR	2.2	-	-	64	-	5.0	3.8	2.9	6.6	7.3	6.6	69
Times	9.73	-	NR	2.3	-	-	55	-	5.9	4.5	3.5	6.6	6.8	6.6	68
Aoyuan	5.98	-	NR	2.1	-	-	52	-	7.3	5.9	4.2	8.4	8.5	6.1	65
Ronshine	9.70	-	NR	2.0	-	-	61	-	-	5.1	4.9	4.0	5.5	4.0	48
China SCE	3.43	-	NR	1.7	-	-	66	-	6.4	5.1	4.3	5.2	6.2	6.1	66
Poly	3.12	-	NR	1.5	-	-	62	-	6.9	5.5	4.2	5.2	5.5	6.1	49
CCRE	3.47	-	NR	5.2	-	-	57	-	6.6	5.4	4.4	6.2	6.5	6.1	50

Investment Recommendations

Rating: BUY
Target Price (TP): HK$32
Reasoning: Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and tightening policies, COLI's strong growth and consistent strategy make it an attractive investment. The current valuation is seen as favorable, with a 31% discount to NAV and a 5.3x P/E ratio.

Analyst and Regulatory Information

Analyst Disclosure: The analysts certify that the views expressed in the report reflect their personal views and that their compensation is not related to the specific recommendations.
Regulatory Disclosure: The report is subject to important disclosures and is not intended for general distribution. It is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without the prior consent of CMS Group.
Disclaimer: CMS HK provides this document for informational purposes only. It should not be construed as investment advice or an offer to buy or sell any security. CMS HK is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and its services are not available to U.S. persons except as permitted under SEC Rule 15a-6.

This summary highlights COLI's strong performance, growth prospects, and favorable valuation, supporting the BUY recommendation.

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