2012年-ECB欧洲央行_Technical_Compilation_Guide_for_Pension_Data_in_National_Accounts_141页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of "Technical Compilation Guide for Pension Data in National Accounts" (2011 Edition)

Core Content

This document provides a Technical Compilation Guide for Pension Data in National Accounts, aimed at supporting National Statistical Institutes, Central Banks, and other data compilers in the European Union (EU) in deriving estimates for position and flow data on pension entitlements and obligations.

The guide outlines the methodological framework for recording pension data in the System of National Accounts (SNA) and the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010). It explains how to incorporate pension obligations into the supplementary table on pension schemes in social insurance, which is a key component of these systems.

The guide is based on the 2006 mandate from the Committee on Monetary, Financial and Balance of Payments Statistics (CMFB) to the Eurostat/ECB Task Force, which was responsible for the statistical measurement of pension assets and liabilities in general government.

Main Concepts

Pension Entitlements and Obligations

Pension entitlements of households can be recorded as financial assets or contingent assets.
Pension obligations of general government are recorded as contingent liabilities.
The supplementary table records all positions and flows of pension obligations and entitlements across all pension schemes in social insurance.

Key Concepts in Pension Obligations

Accrued-to-date liabilities (ADL): Reflect the present value of pensions to be paid based on accrued rights, including current and future benefits.
Current workers' and pensioners' liabilities (CWL): Include the present value of future benefits for current contributors, assuming the pension scheme continues until the last contributor dies.
Open-system liabilities (OSL): Include the present value of pensions for new contributors, assuming the scheme continues indefinitely under current rules.
Open-system gross liabilities (OSGL) and open-system net liabilities (OSNL): Represent the total liabilities and net liabilities under the open-system approach, respectively. OSNL is used as a sustainability indicator.

Key Assumptions

Discount Rate

A discount rate is essential for calculating the present value of future pension obligations.
The appropriate choice of discount rate depends on the analysis purpose (e.g., fiscal sustainability or policy evaluation).
The discount rate is applied from the pension scheme's perspective and is used to estimate future obligations.

Wage Growth

Future wage growth is a critical assumption for projecting pension entitlements.
It is considered in the projected benefit obligation (PBO) method but not in the accumulated benefit obligation (ABO) method.

Demographic Assumptions

Life expectancy, fertility rate, and migration are important for projecting future pension obligations.
These assumptions affect the payout period and number of beneficiaries.

Other Assumptions

Inflation and (un)employment rates influence the real and nominal valuation of pension obligations.
Future prevalence of disability is also considered in actuarial estimates.

Data Sources

Accounting data (rows A to F) are the primary source for recording pension obligations.
Regulatory data (rows A to F) are used for government-managed pension schemes.
Other pension data (columns G and H) are either obtained directly from statistics or estimated using an actuarial approach.

Methodological Approach

The PBO approach considers future wage increases, leading to higher estimates of pension obligations compared to the ABO approach.
The actuarial approach is used to estimate pension entitlements for both current contributors and current retirees.
Worked examples are provided to illustrate how to apply these methods in practice.

Supplementary Table Design

The supplementary table includes columns and rows that define the structure and content of pension data.
It reflects the positions and flows of pension obligations and entitlements, ensuring consistency across countries.

Practical Considerations

Actuarial estimates are necessary for schemes where no data is available from other sources.
The new international standards (SNA 2008 and ESA 2010) require full coverage of pension data in the supplementary table.
National accounts compilers must use ex post measures, based on historical data and observable events.
Assumptions about future developments are crucial for accurate estimates.

Conclusion

This guide is a comprehensive resource for compiling pension data in national accounts, providing methodological guidance, assumptions, and examples. It emphasizes the importance of actuarial methods in estimating pension entitlements and obligations, and highlights the difference between ADL and OSNL in terms of fiscal sustainability. The guide is intended to be used by EU countries to improve the accuracy and consistency of pension data across the European Union.