2017年-世界发展银行全球_Data-Driven_Decision_Making_in_Fragile_Contexts___Evidence_from_Sudan_227页_7mb

Summary of Data-Driven Decision Making in Fragile Contexts: Evidence from Sudan

Core Content

This document, Data-Driven Decision Making in Fragile Contexts: Evidence from Sudan, is an edited volume that explores the challenges and opportunities of using survey data in fragile and conflict-affected states, with a focus on Sudan. It is a collaboration between the World Bank and the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID) and aims to contribute to the field of governance statistics by demonstrating innovative methods for data collection, analysis, and application in such contexts.

The book addresses the political economy dynamics of data collection and the importance of reliable data for evidence-based policy making. It also provides practical insights into the design, analysis, and interpretation of survey data, particularly from the DFID Sudan Household Surveys, and highlights how these data can be used to improve decision making and public service delivery.

Main Chapters and Key Points

Part 1: General Theory and Principles

• Chapter 1: The Political Economy of Data Collection and Evidence-Based Policy Making in Fragile Contexts

  • Examines the political economy of data collection and its implications for policy making.
  • Proposes a simple model to understand the dynamics of data availability and use.
  • Discusses the limitations of data in fragile contexts and suggests policy implications for improving data quality and use.

• Chapter 2: Understanding and Preparing Survey Data for Quantitative Analysis

  • Covers the process of data collection, sampling design, weighting, cleaning, and handling missing data.
  • Highlights the importance of proper data preparation for accurate analysis.
  • Provides practical guidance on merging and appending data sets.

• Chapter 3: Working with Incomplete Data Sets

  • Analyzes the challenges of using incomplete data in fragile contexts.
  • Presents case studies on conflict and access to finance.
  • Offers suggestions for future data collection to address these issues.

• Chapter 4: Quantitative Analysis Using Household Survey Data

  • Focuses on the analysis of public service delivery using household survey data.
  • Includes advanced techniques such as factor analysis and structural equation modeling.
  • Demonstrates how survey data can be used to understand service quality and its determinants.

Part 2: Detailed Analysis of Survey Modules

• Chapter 5: Determinants of Trust and the Perceived Effect on Gender of Decisions by the Tribal Leader

  • Uses DFID survey data to analyze trust in tribal leaders and its influence on gender dynamics.
  • Discusses regression results and the role of trust in governance processes.

• Chapter 6: The Vicious Circle of Poverty, Poor Public Service Provision, and State Legitimacy in Sudan

  • Explores the interplay between poverty, public service delivery, and state legitimacy.
  • Uses survey data to assess the impact of these factors on development outcomes.
  • Highlights the importance of understanding political economy dynamics for effective policy making.

• Chapter 7: Geography and Correlates of Attitudes toward Female Genital Mutilation in Sudan

  • Analyzes the spatial and demographic factors influencing attitudes toward FGM.
  • Uses successive opinion polls to track changes in attitudes over time.
  • Discusses the role of education and local governance in shaping these attitudes.

• Chapter 8: The Effect of Decentralization Policies on Inequalities of Public Service Delivery in Sudan

  • Examines how decentralization affects public service delivery and inequalities.
  • Discusses the theoretical framework of decentralization and service delivery.
  • Analyzes fiscal decentralization and its implications for service provision in Sudan.

• Chapter 9: Still Far from Development: Humanitarian Assistance Policy and Practice in Darfur

  • Reviews the humanitarian and development context in Darfur from 2004 to 2014.
  • Analyzes the effects of conflict on livelihoods and the challenges faced by humanitarian actors.
  • Discusses the politicization of aid and its impact on assistance delivery and reintegration.

Key Information

• Data Sources: The primary data used in the analysis comes from the DFID Sudan Household Surveys, conducted in 2013 and 2014.
• Methodologies: The book employs a range of statistical and analytical techniques, including regression analysis, factor analysis, and spatial analysis.
• Themes: The central themes include the role of data in governance, the impact of political economy dynamics, and the use of survey data to inform policy decisions in fragile contexts.
• Challenges: Data collection and analysis in fragile states are hindered by political instability, lack of infrastructure, and limited statistical capacity.
• Implications: The work underscores the importance of investing in data literacy and statistical capacity building to ensure that data can be effectively used for evidence-based decision making.

Conclusion

The book concludes that while data collection in fragile contexts is challenging, it is feasible and crucial for improving governance and policy outcomes. It emphasizes the need for robust methodologies, interdisciplinary collaboration, and the development of inclusive data sets that reflect the diverse realities of populations in conflict-affected areas. The insights from this volume can be applied to other fragile contexts to enhance the use of data in development and humanitarian work.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figures: Include visual representations of survey data such as perceptions of service quality, access to financial services, and attitudes toward FGM.
• Tables: Present detailed data summaries, regression results, and statistical methods used in the analysis.
• Boxes: Offer practical insights, such as the structure of questionnaires used in the surveys.

Notes on the Authors and Editors

• Alexander Hamilton: Economic and statistics adviser at DFID, with expertise in governance statistics and political economy.
• Craig Hammer: Senior program manager at the World Bank, specializing in governance reforms and open government initiatives.
• Chandni Raja, Naomi Crowther, and Ella Spencer: Experts in survey design, quantitative analysis, and development economics.
• Zintis Hermansons: Project expert in European regional development, with a focus on evidence-based policy.
• John Hudson: Economist at the University of Bath, with extensive research on development economics and aid effectiveness.
• Ngianga-Bakwin Kandala: Professor of biostatistics at Northumbria University, with a focus on health economics and inequalities.
• Dragana Marinkovic: Project manager at Komaza Kenya, specializing in conflict prevention and sustainable livelihoods.

Rights and Permissions

• The work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license, allowing for free use with proper attribution.
• Translations and adaptations require a disclaimer stating that they are not official and the World Bank is not liable for any errors.
• The book includes contributions from various organizations and institutions, with permissions granted for reproduction.

Final Note

The number of states in Sudan has changed over the period of data collection, which affects the analysis and interpretation of the data. This is acknowledged in the document and taken into account in the analysis.