2010年-世界发展银行全球_PSIA___Power_Sector_Reforms_and_the_Poor_in_Vietnam_22页_1mb

PSIA: Power Sector Reforms and the Poor in Vietnam

Executive Summary

Vietnam has implemented significant changes to its power sector tariffs, particularly the incremental block tariff (IBT) structure, which now applies uniformly across rural and urban areas. The new structure sets the first 50 kWh of consumption at a lifeline tariff of VND 600/kWh, which is 35–40% of average 2009 costs (excluding profits). The second block (51–100 kWh) is set at VND 865/kWh, the average cost of supply (excluding profits), while higher blocks are priced above average costs (including profits) to support subsidies. These reforms aim to improve subsidy targeting and ensure fair treatment for all residential consumers.

Future reforms may further narrow the lifeline tariff to only those consuming less than 50 kWh and target subsidies to rural customers only. Despite these changes, the analysis shows that the poor in Vietnam remain well-protected, and the affordability of electricity is not significantly impacted.

Core Content

Tariff Reforms in March 2009

• Lifeline Tariff: The first 50 kWh per month is subject to a lifeline tariff of VND 600/kWh, which is 35–40% of the average cost of supply (excluding profits).
• Second Block: The next block (51–100 kWh) is priced at VND 865/kWh, the average cost of supply (excluding profits).
• Higher Blocks: Prices for higher consumption blocks are set above the average cost of supply (including profits) to help finance subsidies for lower consumption blocks.
• Profit Recovery: Profit components are recovered through tariffs on higher residential consumption and non-residential users.

Previous System

• Before 2009, only households supplied directly by EVN's subsidiaries (Power Companies, or PCs) received a lifeline tariff for the first 100 kWh.
• LDUs (Local Distribution Utilities) operated in many rural areas, charging up to VND 700/kWh and providing little or no subsidies to low-income consumers.

Poverty and Social Impact Analysis

Key Findings

• High Electricity Access: By 2008, 98% of households in Vietnam had access to electricity, including 99% in urban areas and 97% in rural areas.
• Affordability: Electricity remains affordable, with poor households spending on average 2.6% of total cash expenditures in 2008. The wealthiest spent 3.6%.
• Subsidy Coverage: The subsistence threshold for poor households is estimated at 40–45 kWh per month, based on owning basic appliances like lights, fans, rice cookers, and TVs.
• Consumption Levels: In 2008, households below the poverty line consumed on average 42 kWh/month, compared to 103 kWh/month for those above the poverty line.

Impact of Tariff Changes

• The reduction of the lifeline band from 100 kWh to 50 kWh only increased the share of poor spending on electricity by 0.2 percentage points.
• Across three reform scenarios, the impact on affordability remains small, with the most significant effects observed in the third scenario (telescoped subsidy) for rural consumers.

Coverage of the Urban Poor

• Migrant Workers and Temporary Residents: These groups are often not well-covered by the lifeline tariff, as they are charged by landlords at rates higher than official tariffs.
• Landlord Charges: In Hanoi, rates range from VND 1,000–2,500/kWh, while in Ho Chi Minh City, they are as high as VND 2,500–3,500/kWh.
• Impact of Reforms: These groups are not directly affected by the 2009 reforms since they are not included in the lifeline band and are charged by landlords, not directly by the government.

Unified Tariffs in Rural Areas

• LDUs Transition: Over 5,600 LDUs were operating in rural areas in 2008. Most are small and operate with low profit margins.
• Transfer to PCs: By June 2009, 8.8 million rural households were supplied by EVN, with 3,300 LDUs transferred to EVN's PC system.
• Benefits of Unified Tariffs: Rural customers are expected to benefit from lower prices for the first 50 kWh, improved supply quality and reliability, and enhanced safety standards.

Poverty and Social Impact Assessment Methodology

• Poverty Lines: Two poverty lines are used – the WB/GSO line (based on calorie intake and consumption basket) and the MOLISA line (based on per-capita income).
• Poverty Rate: The WB/GSO poverty rate fell from 58% in 1993 to 14% in 2008.
• Monitoring and Analysis: The PSIA uses the VHLSS (Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey) to assess distributional impacts, focusing on affordability and coverage.

Key Impacts of the 2009 Reforms

• Affordability: The increase in tariffs was largely offset by inflation, and the narrowing of the lifeline band had minimal impact on poor households.
• Subsidy Leakages: There was substantial leakage to non-poor households under the previous system, but the new structure aims to improve targeting.
• Future Reforms: Further narrowing of the lifeline band and targeting subsidies to rural areas may affect some groups, but the analysis suggests these changes will not significantly harm the poor.

Conclusion

Vietnam's power sector reforms, particularly the implementation of the IBT structure, have had limited adverse impacts on the poor. The high coverage of electricity access, low consumption levels among poor households, and relatively low economic costs of supply have helped maintain affordability. The transition to a unified tariff system is expected to improve service quality and reliability for rural consumers, while the targeting of subsidies to specific groups may require further monitoring to ensure no adverse effects on vulnerable populations.