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Critical Political Mass: Russia's Emerging Party System Summary

Core Content

This document, authored by Henry Hale and published by PONARS in October 1999, analyzes the development of the Russian political party system in the context of the 1999 parliamentary elections. It challenges the common belief that Russia lacks a functioning party system, suggesting that a real party system is beginning to take shape, with the potential to form a relatively stable four-party system.

Key Developments in the Russian Party System

The Russian Electoral System

• Russia has two types of federal elections: presidential and parliamentary.
• The presidential election requires a candidate to secure at least 50% + 1 vote, or a runoff if no candidate reaches this threshold.
• The Duma, the lower house of parliament, has 450 members:
  • 225 elected through single-member districts (SMDs): Similar to the U.S. House of Representatives.
  • 225 elected through proportional representation (PR): Parties must secure at least 5% of the vote to gain representation.
• The Federation Council, the upper house, is not directly elected and consists of governors and heads of local legislatures.

Parties on the Rise (1993–1995)

• In 1993, political parties were weak and ineffective.
• By 1995, parties were gaining influence, as evidenced by:
  • Distinct social bases: Yabloko attracted the intelligentsia, the Communists drew support from elderly and former Soviet communists, and the LDPR found its base among men in small towns.
  • Voters distinguishing between parties based on ideas: Polls indicated clear policy preferences for each party.
  • Emerging party loyalty: A study by Tucker and Brader showed that 25% of voters consistently supported a party and its candidates across multiple elections.
  • Parties influencing SMD elections: Party-nominated candidates received more votes than independents, with the Communist Party providing the largest boost (14 percentage points).
  • Parties as electoral vehicles: Parties began to offer organizational support, financial backing, and credibility to candidates.

The Turning Point of 1999

• The 1999 parliamentary elections are seen as a watershed moment for the Russian party system.
• Politicians are converging around four parties:
  • The Communists
  • Fatherland-All Russia (led by Primakov)
  • Yabloko
  • The LDPR (led by Zhirinovsky)
• These parties have achieved critical mass, attracting major political figures and organizational resources.

Examples of Party Alignment

• Stepankov, a former federal Prosecutor General, shifted from independence to Fatherland-All Russia.
• Marat Mirgazyamov, a former republic Prime Minister, joined Yabloko, despite a history of independence.
• Moscow Mayor Luzhkov and St. Petersburg Governor Yakovlev were placed on the Fatherland-All Russia list.
• Tula Governor Starodubtsev was on the Communist Party list.
• Saratov Governor Dmitri Ayatskov was on the Our Home is Russia list.

National Political Figures Joining Parties

• Primakov and Stepashin, former prime ministers, chose to join existing parties rather than create new movements.
• Primakov joined Fatherland-All Russia to gain organizational strength.
• Stepashin joined the Communist Party to enhance his credibility as a corruption-fighter.

Governors and Party Formation

• Governors are key players in forming electoral blocs.
• Some Kremlin-friendly governors are supporting parties that are Kremlin-unfriendly, indicating a shift in political strategy.
• There are signs of serious partisanship among key governors, who are putting their reputations on the line.

Towards a Four-Party System?

• A four-party system is plausible, with the following potential roles:
  • Two senior parties: The Communists and Fatherland-All Russia, expected to receive 15–35% of the vote.
  • Two junior parties: Yabloko and the LDPR, likely to receive 5–15% of the vote.
  • Smaller parties may also clear the five-percent threshold, including:
    • The Pensioners Party
    • The National Bloc (including the Russian National Unity)
    • The Union of Right-Wing Forces
    • A radical communist bloc
    • A Kremlin interest bloc (e.g., Our Home is Russia, Unity, or a combination)
• Despite weak organizational structures, these four parties have reached critical political mass, allowing them to attract more support and senior members than their ideological rivals.

Conclusion

• The Russian party system is evolving, with four parties potentially forming the core of future politics.
• If these parties run effective campaigns and are not removed from the race, they could lay the foundation for a more stable and functional political system in Russia.