20181210-USDA-Sugar_and_Sweeteners_Outlook_12页_482kb

Summary of Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook Report (December 17, 2018)

Core Content

The Economic Research Service (ERS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook report for the 2018/19 fiscal year, projecting changes in U.S. and Mexican sugar production, deliveries, and trade dynamics. The report highlights the impact of weather conditions, market trends, and international agreements on sugar supply and demand.

Key Information

U.S. Sugar Outlook

• Projected Production: 8.941 million short tons, raw value (STRV), a decrease of 74,000 STRV from the November report and 3.9% lower than the previous year.
• Beet Sugar Production: Reduced to 4.900 million STRV, primarily due to lower sucrose recovery from beet slicing during August through October.
• Cane Sugar Production: Remains unchanged at 4.041 million STRV, with a 0.7% increase from 2017/18.
• Imports: Increased by 278,000 STRV, mainly from Mexico, due to the suspension agreement terms.
• Domestic Deliveries: Reduced by 50,000 STRV to 12.270 million STRV, reflecting slower sales.
• Ending Stocks: Projected to be 1.664 million STRV, with a stocks-to-use ratio of 13.5%.
• Refined Sugar Prices: Increased during October and November due to tighter supply expectations, with wholesale prices reaching 35 cents per pound for beet sugar and 37.0 cents per pound for cane sugar in the Northeast.

Mexico Sugar Outlook

• Projected Production: 6.025 million metric tons, actual value (MT), unchanged from the November report.
• Imports for Consumption: Reduced by 45,000 MT from the previous level, mainly due to fewer U.S. shipments.
• Exports: Increased by 238,000 MT, reflecting updated U.S. Needs calculations.
• Ending Stocks: Projected to be 1.330 million MT, resulting in a stocks-to-consumption ratio of 30.1%.
• Domestic Deliveries for Human Consumption: Projected to be 4.413 million MT, a 4.4% increase from 2017/18, as per capita deliveries return to historical levels.

Main Points

• U.S. Production Trends:

  • Beet sugar production is lower than expected due to reduced sucrose recovery.
  • Cane sugar production remains stable, with slight yield improvements in Louisiana.
  • Domestic sugar supplies for 2018/19 are projected to be 13.968 million STRV, reflecting a balance between reduced production and increased imports.

• Trade Dynamics:

  • Increased imports from Mexico are expected, driven by the suspension agreement.
  • U.S. sugar exports are projected to be 35,000 STRV, a reduction from the previous month due to stabilized market conditions.

• Market Conditions:

  • Refined sugar prices have increased due to tighter supply expectations.
  • Domestic sales have been relatively flat, with industry reports indicating slower-than-expected deliveries.

• Mexico's Market Outlook:

  • The sugarcane harvest is in early stages, with production and harvest areas still low.
  • Domestic deliveries for human consumption are expected to rise, but the stocks-to-consumption ratio remains high by historical standards.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Shows U.S. sugar supply and use for fiscal years 2016/17, 2017/18, and 2018/19, highlighting changes in production, imports, and domestic deliveries.
• Table 2: Details beet sugar production projections, including sugarbeet production, shrinkage, and extraction rates for the 2017/18 and 2018/19 crop years.
• Table 3: Summarizes Mexico's sugar supply and use for the same periods, including production, imports, exports, and ending stocks.

Figures Summary

• Figure 1: Displays the cumulative sugar extraction rate from beets over multiple crop years.
• Figure 2: Shows sugarcane harvest progress in Louisiana for 2017, 2018, and the 4-year average.
• Figure 3: Depicts refined sugar prices and Producer Price Indices for the U.S. over the months of October and November.
• Figure 4: Illustrates sugar prices in Mexico from January 2013 to October 2018.
• Figure 5: Shows Mexican sugarcane production by week of harvest for the years 2016/17 to 2018/19.

Additional Information

• The next release of the report is scheduled for January 17, 2019.
• Readers can subscribe to the ERS e-mail notification service for updates on reports and data.
• Historical and current data on sugar and sweeteners are available on the ERS website.

Suggested Citation

McConnell, Michael J. and David Olson, Sugar and Sweeteners Outlook, SSS-M-364, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, December 17, 2018.