2004年-世界发展银行全球_Trade_Policy_and_Poverty_Reduction_in_Brazil_30页_184kb

Summary of "Trade Policy and Poverty Reduction in Brazil"

Core Content

This study evaluates the impact of trade policy options on poverty in Brazil using a multiregion computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. It focuses on the Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA), the EU-Mercosur agreement, and multilateral trade liberalization within the World Trade Organization (WTO). The analysis considers the welfare effects of these policies on poor households in Brazil, particularly how trade liberalization affects unskilled labor and agricultural markets.

Main Views and Key Findings

• Trade Liberalization Benefits the Poor:

  • Trade liberalization increases the return to unskilled labor relative to capital and skilled labor.
  • The poorest households in Brazil experience 1.5–5.5% gains in consumption, which are 3–4 times higher than the average gain for the entire economy.
  • This is due to the factor intensity of industries: capital-intensive manufacturing is favored under protection, while labor-intensive sectors like agriculture benefit from trade liberalization.

• No Tradeoff Between Aggregate Welfare and Poverty Reduction:

  • The study concludes that trade liberalization does not create a tradeoff between aggregate welfare gains and poverty reduction.
  • The poorest households benefit disproportionately, suggesting that trade policy can be both growth-enhancing and pro-poor.

• Regional Agreements vs. Multilateral Liberalization:

  • FTAA and EU-Mercosur are net trade-creating for member countries, but excluded countries (like Brazil in some scenarios) lose.
  • Multilateral trade liberalization (e.g., a 50% cut in tariffs and export subsidies) yields more than four times greater gains than either regional agreement, highlighting the importance of global negotiations.
  • The EU agreement is more valuable to Brazil than the FTAA due to access to EU agricultural markets, which are highly protected. However, agricultural exclusion from agreements significantly reduces their value.

• Impact of Trade Policy on Income Distribution:

  • Most trade policy reforms in Brazil shift resources from capital-intensive manufacturing to labor-intensive agriculture and less capital-intensive manufacturing, raising unskilled wages.
  • The eight poorest types of households experience several times greater income increases than the average.

• Modeling Approach:

  • The study uses a nested Armington structure and CES demand functions to model consumer behavior.
  • It incorporates 20 types of Brazilian households (10 rural, 10 urban), classified by income levels.
  • Elasticities of substitution are assumed to be $\sigma_{\mathrm{MM}} = 30$ and $\sigma_{\mathrm{DM}} = 15$, which are higher than typical econometric estimates but necessary to produce realistic terms of trade effects.

• Data and Methodology:

  • The GTAP5 database is used for countries other than Brazil.
  • Brazilian data are independently constructed, including factor shares, input-output tables, and household expenditure surveys.
  • Factor shares in agriculture and services are reestimated to better reflect labor-intensive nature, which is crucial for accurate poverty analysis.

• Limitations and Considerations:

  • The model does not include increasing returns to scale or endogenous productivity effects, which could increase gains.
  • Services are not treated in detail, and regional trade arrangements with preferential tariff rates are not incorporated.
  • Antidumping measures and restrictive rules of origin in the FTAA can limit market access for Brazilian exports, especially in highly protected sectors.

Conclusion

The study underscores the importance of agricultural liberalization for poverty reduction in Brazil. It suggests that multilateral trade liberalization is more beneficial than regional agreements, but the EU-Mercosur agreement is still more valuable to Brazil due to agricultural access. The results emphasize the pro-poor distribution of trade gains and the need for detailed empirical analysis of factor shares and household behavior to accurately assess the impact of trade policy on poverty.