Forrester-2019年市场趋势预测（英文）-2018.12-18页_2mb

2019 Predictions Summary

Core Content

Forrester's 2019 predictions highlight a shift from ambitious, transformational strategies to pragmatic, focused actions across various business domains. The year is expected to be a critical turning point where companies will address foundational challenges, align their purpose with customer and employee expectations, and navigate the complexities of digital and cybersecurity transformation.

Main Predictions and Key Points

1. Transformation Goes Pragmatic

• Core Challenge: Large-scale strategies like customer experience (CX) and digital transformation are seen as difficult, costly, and disruptive.
• 2018 Outcome: CX performance remained flat, and over 50% of digital transformation efforts stalled.
• 2019 Focus: Companies will tackle foundational issues such as organizational readiness, technical debt, data governance, and aging brands.
• Risk: Pragmatism may reinforce organizational inertia and the status quo, especially in the face of an economic downturn.
• Outcome: Pragmatic actions will create a more durable foundation for future strategies.

2. CX Remains Under Fire

• Prediction: 20% of brands will give up on strategic CX initiatives and resort to price reduction.
• Root Causes: CX initiatives often fall into a "find-fix" mode that fails to impress customers. There's a mismatch between CX's strategic needs and its operational capabilities.
• Trend: CX efforts will remain limited to incremental improvements rather than disruptive changes.

3. Digital Goes Surgical

• Prediction: 25% of firms will decelerate digital efforts and lose market share.
• Trend: Digital transformation will shift from broad, enterprise-wide efforts to a surgical, portfolio-based approach focusing on tangible, incremental changes.
• Success Factor: 15% of firms will successfully cross the digital bridge by adopting agile, customer-driven models with modern development and architecture.

4. Purpose Regains Meaning

• Prediction: 20% of brands will refine and revitalize their purpose.
• Strategic Importance: Purpose is becoming a critical driver for growth, especially in a world where customer and employee expectations are increasingly tied to it.
• Key Questions: Brands must define their real purpose, decide where to fight or partner, attract purpose-driven talent, and engage authentically in social and cultural debates.

5. CMOs Rebrand

• Prediction: Over 50% of CMOs will bring brand back as their top priority.
• Reason: Brands are losing connection with purpose, brand equity, and customer experience. CMOs will focus on re-establishing these links.
• Risk: Some CMOs may be perceived as retreating to brand building, avoiding strategic and operational change.

6. CIOs Take the Reins

• Prediction: 25% of CIOs will expand their remit, while the rest will be relegated to trusted operators.
• Challenge: CIOs face a complex, interdependent mandate involving data governance, AI, and digital transformation.
• Outcome: Leading CIOs will build models that translate technology into customer value.

7. AI Builds a Foundation

• Prediction: RPA and AI will combine to create digital workers for over 40% of enterprises.
• Barriers in 2018: Insufficient data governance, too horizontal AI applications, and lack of explainability.
• 2019 Outlook: Companies will start addressing data debt, expanding RPA and AI proofs of concept, and building a more robust AI infrastructure.

8. The World Goes to Zero Trust

• Prediction: One major brand will lose more than 25% of its valuation due to a cyberattack.
• Trend: Zero Trust security strategy will become the standard, especially in the US, where the government will adopt it as a preferred approach.
• Impact: Cybersecurity will command more budget and attention, as companies face unprecedented threats.

9. Consumer Brands Enter the Outrage

• Prediction: 75% of B2C CMOs will be tempted to engage in social outrage, but 50% of those efforts will fail.
• Challenge: Brands lack the analytics and instincts to navigate social and cultural debates effectively.
• Example: Nike successfully engaged with customer sentiments in 2018, setting a precedent for 2019.

10. B2B in a Squeeze

• Prediction: 33% of B2B CMOs will shift from blunt outbound methods to customer-outcome-focused strategies.
• Challenge: B2B marketers are struggling to pivot to customer-led marketing, as buyers behave more like consumers.
• Trend: A portfolio approach to microsegments will be a key step toward individualization.

11. EX Takes Center Stage

• Prediction: 85% of employee experience (EX) measurement efforts will fail.
• Trend: Companies are shifting from broad cultural change to targeted EX initiatives.
• Risk: Incomplete or misguided EX efforts may degrade employee experiences rather than improve them.

12. Robots Reimagine Talent Management

• Prediction: 25% of leaders will use automation to address talent scarcity.
• Impact: Automation will free human capital from mundane tasks, allowing focus on developing expertise.
• Trend: Talent leaders will adopt a robotics quotient (RQ) and a good-to-great hiring and development strategy.

13. VC Funding for Martech and AdTech Drops by 75%

• Trend: The digital advertising market is undergoing a correction due to concerns about transparency, fraud, and inefficiency.
• Outcome: Venture capital funding will shift from horizontal to vertical, with specific use cases driving investment.

14. Blockchain Exposes Advertising

• Prediction: Over 50% of the top 100 advertisers will use blockchain for supply chain transparency by the end of 2019.
• Trend: Blockchain will help uncover waste and inefficiencies in digital advertising, increasing trust and transparency.
• Impact: Advertisers will gain better visibility into their spending and identify non-value participants in the supply chain.

15. IoT Gets Down to Business

• Prediction: 85% of firms will implement or plan to implement IoT solutions.
• Trend: B2C IoT adoption is still in early stages, but B2B IoT will take off, focusing on efficiency and connectivity.
• Use Cases: Industrial manufacturing, healthcare, retail, and utilities will drive IoT adoption.

Conclusion

2019 is expected to be a year of pragmatic transformation where companies will focus on foundational issues, align their purpose with market realities, and navigate the challenges of digital, cybersecurity, and talent management. The year will test leaders' ability to balance short-term gains with long-term strategic goals, and those who adapt effectively will position themselves for success in 2020.