20161104-招商证券_香港_-Morning_Express_17页_1mb_1mb

报告摘要

CMS(HK) Research Highlights Summary

Huadian Fuxin Energy (816 HK, HK$1.63, BUY, TP HK$2.1)

Key Takeaways from Conference Call
- Hydro utilization expected at 5,200 hours in 2016E (+35% YoY).
- Wind utilization expected at ~1,650 hours in 2016E (-5% YoY).
- Wind capacity target of +1GW per year for 2016E and 2017E.
- Capital expenditure beyond 2017E is contingent on tariff cuts.
- Valuation: Attractive with 2017E PE of 4.7x, 30%-35% discount to coal-fired and wind power peers.
- Blended OP Margin: Improved from 31% in 2015 to 35% in 2016E, despite lower profitability in coal-fired power due to tariff reduction.

HEC Pharm (1558 HK, HK$17.26, BUY, TP HK$20.0)

Recent NDR and Collaboration with TaiGen Bio
- Positive outlook on growth in 2016E-18E, supported by sales momentum of key product Kewei (oseltamivir phosphate).
- Collaborated with TaiGen Bio to form a JV for R&D, production, and sales of new anti-Hepatitis C drugs.
- TaiGen's Furaprevir is in phase II trials in Taiwan, and the combination with HEC's Yimitsvir Phosphate is expected to offer a competitive advantage.
Financials and Valuation
- Maintained target price of HK$20.0, implying 17x 2017E P/E.
- Trading at 14.2x 2017E P/E, below consumer staples peers.
- Revised revenue and earnings forecasts, with higher growth expected in 2017E.

China Biologic Products (CBPO US, US$118, BUY, TP US$149)

Strong 3Q16 Results
- Revenue of US$86.5mn, +9.8% YoY in USD terms.
- Gross margin expanded to 68.1% in 3Q16, driven by better product mix and ASP.
- Guizhou Taibang deal contributed to earnings, with ~2%-3% bottom-line impact in FY16E and ~4%-5% in FY17E.
Facility Upgrade and Pipeline
- New facility in Shandong expected to be completed in 2H17E for plant validation and trial production.
- Fibrinogen received provincial FDA approval, expected to launch in 2H17E.
- CFDA approval for two new products: Human Coagulation Factor IX and Antithrombin III.
Valuation and Outlook
- Current P/E of 22x FY17E, with a DCF-based target price of US$149.
- Maintained BUY rating, with upside potential from improved profitability and facility upgrade.

Wynn Macau (1128 HK, HK$12.02, BUY, TP HK$14.30)

3Q16 Performance
- Adj. property EBITDA of US$177mn (+8% YoY, -7% QoQ), missing expectations.
- Wynn Palace contributed 25‰ to VIP and 21% to mass GGR.
- Peninsula VIP was weak, but Cotai showed improvement in gaming volume.
Ramp-up Challenges
- Wynn Palace's VIP ramp-up is expected to improve in 6-18 months.
- Daily opex reduced to US$1.1mn in Macau and US$1.5-1.6mn in Cotai.
Valuation and Outlook
- Trading at 26x FY17E P/E, with TP lowered to HK$14.30 (based on 5-year historical averages).
- Maintain BUY rating due to strong fundamentals and potential for gradual recovery.

Melco Crown (MPEL US, US$18.06, NEUTRAL, TP under review)

3Q16 Results
- Adj. EBITDA of US$262mn (+26% YoY, +20% QoQ), beating estimates.
- Studio City was the main driver, with EBITDA margin improving to 22.8% QoQ.
Studio City Development
- VIP business to start in November, with new direct VIP/junket area expected to be introduced.
- Ramp-up progress is expected, with potential for improved profitability.
Valuation and Outlook
- Trading at 49x FY17E P/E, with potential for re-rating based on improved ROE.
- Maintain NEUTRAL rating, as valuation is fair and market conditions remain uncertain.

FOMC Meeting and Key Events to Watch

November FOMC Decision
- Fed Funds Target Rate unchanged at 0.25%-0.5%.
- Forward guidance was "soft," with no explicit mention of the "next meeting" for rate hike.
- Market expects a December rate hike with ~67% chance based on futures data.
Potential Influences on December Decision
- US Election (November 8th) and Italian Referendum (December 4th) are key political events.
- Economic data, including jobs reports and inflation, will be critical for Fed's decision-making.
- Oil price volatility and OPEC meeting in November could impact inflation expectations.

Research Coverage List (As of November 4, 2016)

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Last Price	12-Month TP	% Upside	2015 EPS	2016E EPS	2017E EPS	2015 P/E	2016E P/E	2017E P/E
Auto & Auto Parts	Brilliance China	1114 HK	BUY	HK$9.15	HK$12.0	31	0.69	0.71	0.84	10.6	10.4	9.1
	China ZhengTong	1728 HK	BUY	HK$2.41	HK$3.5	45	0.29	0.39	0.46	6.7	5.0	5.2
	Geely Automobile	175 HK	BUY	HK$8.05	HK$13.0	61	0.26	0.53	0.83	24.8	12.3	7.7
	BAIC Motor	1958 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$7.63	HK$7.3	-4	0.44	0.71	0.86	13.9	8.7	7.6
	Great Wall Motor	2333 HK	BUY	HK$7.28	HK$11.0	51	0.88	1.06	1.19	6.6	5.6	6.6
	Fuyao Glass	3606 HK	BUY	HK$23.0	HK$26.0	13	1.09	1.22	1.42	16.9	15.2	11.0
	China Harmony Auto	3836 HK	BUY	HK$3.66	HK$6.2	69	0.39	0.42	0.50	7.5	7.0	0.0

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Last Price	12-Month TP	% Upside	2015 EPS	2016E EPS	2017E EPS	2015 P/E	2016E P/E	2017E P/E
Oil and Gas	Sinopec Oilfield	1033 HK	BUY	HK$1.59	HK$1.9	19	0.00	-0.61	0.03	N.A.	N.A.	41.9
	SPT Energy	1251 HK	BUY	HK$0.68	HK$6.2	812	0.32	0.40	-	1.7	1.4	N.A.
	CNOOC	883 HK	BUY	HK$9.82	HK$12.8	30	0.45	0.03	0.59	17.5	264.3	13.9
	Sinopec Kantons	934 HK	BUY	HK$3.56	HK$4.9	38	0.41	0.43	0.46	8.7	8.3	8.4

Sector	Company	Ticker	Rating	Last Price	12-Month TP	% Upside	2015 EPS	2016E EPS	2017E EPS	2015 P/E	2016E P/E	2017E P/E
Property	Yuexiu Property	123 HK	BUY	HK$1.12	HK$1.36	21	0.11	0.11	0.15	10.2	10.2	7.5
	Yuzhou Property	1628 HK	BUY	HK$2.92	HK$3.3	13	0.48	0.54	0.64	6.1	5.4	4.6
	China Aoyuan	3883 HK	BUY	HK$1.79	HK$2.8	56	0.35	0.41	0.54	5.1	4.4	3.3
	Greentown China	3900 HK	BUY	HK$6.18	HK$7.9	28	0.70	1.25	1.37	8.8	4.9	4.5
	China Overseas Land	688 HK	NEUTRAL	HK$23.65	HK$27.0	14	2.86	3.02	3.28	8.3	7.8	7.2

Summary: The document provides detailed research highlights on several Hong Kong-listed companies, including Huadian Fuxin Energy, HEC Pharm, China Biologic Products, Wynn Macau, and Melco Crown, with key insights on performance, valuation, and future outlook. It also covers the FOMC meeting and key events to watch for the Fed's potential December rate hike. Each company's performance, growth drivers, and financial metrics are analyzed, along with the current market conditions and investment recommendations.

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