20240815-中诚信国际-保险资产管理行业研究_14页_1mb

Analysis of Innovation Product in Insurance Asset Management: Affordable Housing Asset-Backed Securities

1. Introduction
The innovation products in insurance asset management refer to financial assets beyond traditional stocks, bonds, cash, and their combinations, including credit investment plans, asset support plans, equity investment plans, and insurance private funds. To address declining investment returns and restricted channels, insurance companies need innovative products to enhance investment efficiency. Affordable housing asset-backed securities (ABS) are attracting attention, offering steady cash flows and favorable yields.

2. Affordable Housing Industry Background
Affordable housing has strong social protection features, supported by strong government policies and stable sales revenue. Physical resettlement models reduce local government and basic investment companies' (基投公司) financial burden, making affordable housing suitable as underlying assets. New projects, especially those using physical resettlement, enhance cash flow predictability.

3. Affordable Housing ABS Market
Affordable housing ABS has a small but growing market compared to other asset-backed securities. Exchanges experienced rapid growth from 2019 to 2021, but issuance slowed due to regulatory changes and economic factors. By the end of 2024, cumulative scale and sustainable development are critical. This product has good returns but faces future regulatory uncertainties.

4. Key Considerations in Credit Analysis

• Originator Analysis: Focuses on regional environment, operational strength, financial risk, external support, and creditworthiness.
• Underlying Assets: Examines asset quality and cash flow generation through seven factors, including plan feasibility and payment coverage.
• Transaction Structures: Dual SPV structure enhances cash flow independence, while single SPV reduces complexity. Early warning mechanisms based on payment recovery improve risk control.

5. Summary and Outlook
Given lower returns on traditional investments, affordable housing ABS may become a preferred option for insurance companies. Its stable cash flow and policy support offer attractive returns. However, its future prospects hinge on regulatory policies and the repayment capacity of borrowers.

专题研究：保险资管业创新型产品之一——保障房资产证券化

一、概念界定与政策背景

保险资产管理业创新型产品指除传统股票、债券、现金及其组合外的金融资产，包括债权投资计划、资产支持计划、股权投资计划、保险私募基金等。近年来，受政策趋严和收益率下行影响，此类产品数量和规模大幅下降。保障房ABS具有稳定现金流和高收益特性，为保险资金提供了新的配置方向。

二、保障房行业特征

保障房具有社会保障属性，购房者需求刚性且具备支付能力，销售收入稳定可预测。实物安置模式下，政府通过基建类企业（基投公司）建设安置房，资金压力较小，有助于盘活存量资产。

三、保障房资产支持证券市场分析

保障房ABS市场分为银行间与交易所市场。交易所市场从2019年起快速增长，2021年达顶峰后面临政策收紧及经济压力。2023年下半年起交易萎缩，但未来仍有偿付压力（预计2025年为偿付高峰）。产品发行利率较高，但近期呈现下降趋势。

四、信用分析要点

• 主融资人/增信方: 主要为基投公司，信用分析应关注区域经济、运营能力、财务状况、外部支持及ESG因素。
• 基础资产分析: 双SPV结构提升现金流独立性，现金流预测需考虑拆迁进度、结算能力等变量。
• 交易结构设计: 双SPV增强隔离性，单SPV降低交易成本，但需设置与回收款挂钩的触发机制以保障兑付。

五、趋势展望

保障房ABS因政策支持和稳定收益成为保险资金配置的重要选择。但受监管趋严和规模收紧影响，其发展前景不确定性较强。未来需关注主体信用风险及市场流动性变化。

保险资产管理业创新型产品：保障房资产证券化研究报告（摘要）

保险资产管理业创新型产品指除传统股票、债券、现金组合外，如债权投资计划、资产支持计划等的金融资产。今年以来，由于政策趋严和收益率大幅下降，这些产品的数量和规模骤减，亟需找到新的投资方向以提升投资收益。保障房 ABS（资产支持证券）因具有良好的现金流稳定性和收益性，成为备受关注的创新型投资产品之一。

保障房具有社会保障属性，购房者具有刚性购房需求和支付能力，其销售收入较为稳定可预测，适合作为基础资产。以实物安置为主的保障房项目，资金压力较小，由政府委托的基投公司建设并负责安置和收款，有助于保障未来现金流的可持续性。

保障房 ABS 在交易所在 2019 年迎来了爆发式增长，但自 2023 年下半年起面临政策收紧及交易放缓，发行规模持续下滑，预计 2025 年将出现偿付高峰。评级结果显示，保障房 ABS 的利率整体较高，但近年来呈下降趋势，净融资额整体净流出趋势明显。

信用分析方面，保障房 ABS 应密切关注基投公司的区域经济环境，包括财政实力、外部支持力度及区域债务风险，同时关注基础资产现金流的稳定性、交易结构的风险控制、主融资人的增信意愿及能力。主要交易结构包括双 SPV 和单 SPV，可显著影响产品安全性，双 SPV 结构在资金隔离性和现金流独立性方面更具优势。

综上所述，在当前资产荒和收益率下行背景下，具备政策支持、稳定票息和高信用等级的保障房 ABS 可为保险资金提供新的投资机会，但从长期来看，需密切关注政策变化与融资主体信用风险。