20240205-兴证期货-PX周度报告_供应仍趋宽松_PX承压回落_12页_684kb

PX Market Analysis Summary

PX Prices and Market Conditions

PX prices declined due to cost pressures from falling oil prices. As of February 5, 2024, FOB Korea prices were $992 per ton (down $26 per ton week-on-week), CFR China was $1015 per ton. Regional spreads are stable, with the US-Japan spread at $6,208/ton. Futures are around 8,412 yuan/ton, with bearish sentiment from weak oil support and unstarted aromatics blending demand.

Short-Term Outlook

PX is expected to remain in an oscillation phase before Chinese New Year, with limited support from supply-side weaknesses. Cost remains key driver, as oil prices in a narrow range. Demand recovery could be expected post-holiday, but current fundamentals cannot sustain prices.

Fundamentals

• Cost side: Oil prices weak, recovery from a prior range, with reduced geopolitical risks not yet impacting supply adequately.
• Supply: Stable, with minor weekly changes in production and utilization (e.g., Chinese PX output down slightly).
• Demand: PTA and polyester activity decreased due to seasonality and maintenance, indicating no strong upside immediate.

Risks and Considerations

Major risks include further oil price volatility, slow demand recovery, and geopolitical events like the Middle East situation. Monitoring PX-MX and PX-styrene swaps is crucial for trend changes.

Conclusion

Overall, PX market is under pressure with medium-term supply stability and weak demands. A wait-and-see approach near seasonal lows is recommended, with potential opportunities in later months if economic factors improve.