20181024-法国巴黎银行-TURKEY_UPDATE_CORPORATES_AND_BANKS_17页_697kb

报告摘要

TURKEY UPDATE Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an analysis of the financial health and performance of Turkish banks and corporates as of Q2 2018. It includes data on ownership structure, balance sheets, profitability, solvency, liquidity, asset quality, and bond spreads. The document also contains investment recommendations and legal disclosures regarding the use of the material.

Key Information on Turkish Banks

Ownership and Market Share

GARAN: Private, 50% owned by BBVA, 50% free float, 10% market share by assets, CAR 18.0%, Tier1 15.7%, NPL 3.1%, ROE 17.4%, Rating B1/BB-/B+.
AKBNK: Private, 49% owned by Sabanci, 51% free float, 9% market share by assets, CAR 16.7%, Tier1 14.5%, NPL 2.8%, ROE 15.8%, Rating B1/B+/.
ISCTR: Private, 40% owned by Is Pension, 32% free float, 11% market share by assets, CAR 15.9%, Tier1 13.1%, NPL 2.8%, ROE 13.5%, Rating B2/B+/B+.
YKBNK: Private, 40% owned by Unicredit, 40% owned by Koc, 20% free float, 9% market share by assets, CAR 15.1%, Tier1 11.7%, NPL 4.0%, ROE 13.4%, Rating B1/BB-/B+.
QNBFB: Private, 100% owned by QNB, 4% market share by assets, CAR 14.9%, Tier1 11.2%, NPL 5.1%, ROE 15.8%, Rating Ba3/BB-/.
TSKBTI: Private, 51% owned by ISCTR, 41% free float, 1% market share by assets, CAR 15.2%, Tier1 10.4%, NPL 1.9%, ROE 17.7%, Rating B2/B+/.
ALTNF: Private, 100% owned by The Commercial Bank, 1% market share by assets, CAR 16.8%, Tier1 8.3%, NPL 3.3%, ROE 10.2%, Rating //.
TCZIRA: State, 100% owned by Wealth Fund, 14% market share by assets, CAR 13.7%, Tier1 13.5%, NPL 1.6%, ROE 15.6%, Rating B1/B+/.
HALKB: State, 51% owned by Wealth Fund, 9% market share by assets, CAR 13.2%, Tier1 11.9%, NPL 2.7%, ROE 13.3%, Rating B2/B+/.
VAKBN: State, 59% owned by Gen.Direction Foundations, 25% free float, 8% market share by assets, CAR 15.0%, Tier1 11.8%, NPL 4.0%, ROE 15.8%, Rating B1/B+/B+.
EXCRTU: State, 100% owned by TR Treasury, 3% market share by assets, CAR 13.7%, Tier1 13.4%, NPL 0.3%, ROE 10.1%, Rating /BB-/.

Solvency, Liquidity, and Asset Quality

The banks generally show strong CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio) and Tier1 ratios, with NPL (Non-Performing Loan) rates ranging from 0.3% to 4.0%.
ROE (Return on Equity) varies from 10.2% to 17.7%, indicating varying levels of profitability.
The ratings (M/F/SP) suggest that most banks are rated at B1 or B2, with some at lower levels.

Senior and Subordinated Bonds

Senior bonds show varying Z-spreads, with GARAN and AKBNK having higher spreads compared to others.
Subordinated bonds generally have higher spreads, with TSKBTI and HALKB showing notable spreads.
Average spreads over sovereign bonds are also mentioned, highlighting the relative risk and yield of each bond.

Key Information on Turkish Corporates

Ownership and Financials

Anadolu Efes: Private, 24% owned by AB InBev, 43% by Anadolu Holding, 27% free float, LTM EBITDA of 2,545 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.9, FX exposure of -459, FX-linked revenues of 62%.
Coca Cola Icecek: Private, 20% owned by Coca Cola Export Corp, 50% owned by AEFES, 27% free float, LTM EBITDA of 1,598 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.9, FX exposure of -397, FX-linked revenues of 53%.
Arcelik: Private, 57% owned by KCHOL, 25% free float, LTM EBITDA of 2,030 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 3.2, FX exposure of -80, FX-linked revenues of 64%.
Koc Holding: Private, 64% owned by Koc Family, 26% free float, LTM EBITDA of 8,961 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.7, FX exposure of 9, FX-linked revenues of 50%.
Sise Cam: Private, 66% owned by ISCTR, 26% free float, LTM EBITDA of 2,766 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.7, FX exposure of 473, FX-linked revenues of 34%.
Petkim: Private, 51% owned by SOCAR, 49% free float, LTM EBITDA of 1,559 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.9, FX exposure of -75, FX-linked revenues of 100%.
Tupras: Private, 51% owned by KCHOL, 49% free float, LTM EBITDA of 5,682 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.6, FX exposure of 53, FX-linked revenues of 100%.
Turk Telekom: Private, 55% owned by OTAS, 25% by Treasury, 15% free float, LTM EBITDA of 7,021 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 2.1, FX exposure of -2,690, FX-linked revenues of 4%.
Turkcell: Private, 51% owned by TC Holding, 49% free float, LTM EBITDA of 7,193 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.6, FX exposure of -301, FX-linked revenues of 14%.
Mersin Liman: Private, 50% owned by PSA, 40% by IFM, 10% by AKFEN, 0% free float, LTM EBITDA of $198, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 0.9, FX-linked revenues of 100%.
CCOLAT: Private, 20% owned by Coca Cola Export Corp, 50% owned by AEFES, 27% free float, LTM EBITDA of 1,598 TL, net debt/EBITDA ratio of 1.9, FX exposure of -397, FX-linked revenues of 53%.

Investment Picks and Pans

Picks:
- GARAN: Well diversified loan book, strong margins, and solvency.
- ISCTR: Good risk/return profile, conservative lending practices, and well collateralized loan book.
- TSKBTI: Good risk/return profile, conservative lending practices, and is the biggest development bank.
- TUPRST: Strong FCF, limited sensitivity to GDP.
- PETKM: Trades wide to sovereign, revenues linked to USD.
- MERSIN: Revenues linked to USD, strong volumes.
- SISETI: Cyclical upswing in the glass sector, long balance sheet FX position, diversified revenues.
Pans:
- HALKB: Weak margins, below average solvency ratios.
- TCZIRA: Less transparent loan book, recently fast loan growth.
- ALNTF: Weak risk pricing in the loan book, low solvency.
- QNBFB: Diversified but risky loan book, volatile profitability.
- TURKTI: Short FX exposure in balance sheet, shareholder uncertainties.
- AEFES: Poor volumes, domestic market share loss, short FX exposure.
- CCOLAT: FCF under pressure, short FX exposure, possible margin pressure.

Legal and Regulatory Disclosures

This document is a marketing communication and not a research report.
It is intended for professional clients and eligible counterparties.
It does not constitute investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.
It may not be suitable for all investors, especially those without professional experience.
The views expressed may differ from those of the BNP Paribas Research Department.
The document is subject to legal restrictions in various jurisdictions, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, Canada, the US, Australia, China, and Hong Kong.
In some jurisdictions, it is only available to certain types of investors or clients, such as wholesale clients in Australia or major U.S. institutional investors.

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